B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$90.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
MTH
Meritage HomesANYSE / Consumer Durables & Apparel
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Adjusted Q2 EPS modestly exceeded the reported consensus, while demand was broadly stable sequentially, construction costs improved, finished-home inventory declined, and liquidity and shareholder returns remained supportive [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +13.5.
What can break
Affordability pressure and volatile mortgage rates may further weaken buyer demand.
Momentum
34
Value
55
Sentiment
84
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $75.00 · Bull $90.00 · Bear $57.00Analysis 2026-08-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $82.38
Why
Momentum34 · Δ7d -6.8
Value55 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment84 · Δ7d +13.5
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +13.5.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Affordability pressure and volatile mortgage rates may further weaken buyer demand.
- • Demand is highly localized, with softer conditions reported in Orlando, Denver, Salt Lake City, and Northern California.
- • The official Q2 release showed weaker orders, closings, revenue, pricing, gross margin, and EPS year over year.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-03
Q2 earnings beat on adjusted EPS but mixed reaction
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
34
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-6.8
Δ21d
-2.8
Value
55
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-5.2
Sentiment
84
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+13.5
Δ21d
+15.0
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 34.2 / Value 54.6 / Sentiment 83.7
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-03. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$75.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$57.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$4.71B
Beta
1.48
Shares Out
65.17M
P/E (TTM)
8.9
P/S (TTM)
0.78
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
16.51
Rev YoY
-13.8%
EPS YoY
-32.9%
Gross Margin
+18.0%
Op Margin
+7.1%
Net Debt
$1.11B
Current Ratio
11.04
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data