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MTH

Meritage HomesC
NYSE / Consumer Durables & Apparel
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Meritage's $807 million of quarter-end cash, undrawn revolving facility and 17.1% net debt-to-capital ratio provide flexibility if expanded community count begins producing better orders and margins [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-28 · AMC.
What can break
Higher lot costs, inventory impairments and terminated-land-deal charges could constrain earnings [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29].
Momentum
24
Value
56
Sentiment
54
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $65.00 · Bull $82.00 · Bear $46.00Analysis 2026-10-06; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-28 · AMC
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-06 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $74.00
Why
Momentum24 · Δ7d 0.0
Value56 · Δ7d -1.5
Sentiment54 · Δ7d -9.2
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-28 · AMC.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.5.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Higher lot costs, inventory impairments and terminated-land-deal charges could constrain earnings [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29].
  • • Lower absorption and home closing revenue may prolong gross-margin and SG&A deleverage despite more communities [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29].
  • • The second quarter showed 9% fewer orders, 14% lower home closing revenue and diluted EPS of $1.37 versus $2.04 a year earlier.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-28 · AMC

Third-quarter results test whether orders and margins have stabilized

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
24
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-5.8
Value
56
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.5
Δ21d
-0.1
Sentiment
54
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-9.2
Δ21d
-28.1
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 24.4 / Value 55.9 / Sentiment 54.3

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-06. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$82.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$65.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$46.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$4.18B
Beta
1.48
Shares Out
65.17M
P/E (TTM)
8.9
P/S (TTM)
0.78
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
14.67
Rev YoY
-13.8%
EPS YoY
-32.9%
Gross Margin
+18.0%
Op Margin
+7.1%
Net Debt
$1.11B
Current Ratio
11.04
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data