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MTCH

Match GroupC
Nasdaq / Media & Entertainment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The company filing supports a constructive turnaround case: Tinder engagement trends are improving, Hinge is expanding internationally with strong growth, and high free-cash-flow conversion enables buybacks and dividends. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04]
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-25.
What can break
Hinge international expansion and new product features may not translate into sustained payer and revenue growth.
Momentum
84
Value
58
Sentiment
45
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $42.00 · Bull $49.00 · Bear $32.50Analysis 2026-08-17; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-17 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $42.88
Why
Momentum84 · Δ7d +0.9
Value58 · Δ7d -0.5
Sentiment45 · Δ7d -6.2
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-25.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.5.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Hinge international expansion and new product features may not translate into sustained payer and revenue growth.
  • • Peer candidates are mostly loose sector or adjacent comparisons rather than tightly matched operating peers.
  • • User monetization remains fragile: Q2 payers fell 6% and revenue declined 1%.

Catalyst clock

2026-11-15

Tinder stabilization and Hinge expansion

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
84
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.9
Δ21d
+0.0
Value
58
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.5
Δ21d
-2.1
Sentiment
45
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-6.2
Δ21d
-21.3
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 83.6 / Value 58.3 / Sentiment 45.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-17. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$49.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$42.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$32.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$10.5B
Beta
1.33
Shares Out
229.55M
P/E (TTM)
15.1
P/S (TTM)
2.21
P/FCF (TTM)
9.32
Rev YoY
-1.2%
EPS YoY
+43.5%
Gross Margin
+71.5%
Op Margin
+28.2%
Net Debt
$3.06B
Current Ratio
1.72
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data