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MT

ArcelorMittalD
NYSE / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Bull case assumes stronger-than-expected steel prices, improvement in auto and construction demand, and execution on cost/capital allocation leading to re-rating toward analyst highs.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-08.
What can break
Currency volatility, global recession risk, or delayed capital-allocation improvements could further depress valuation.
Momentum
76
Value
49
Sentiment
34
Setup hits (3d)
6 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $46.72 · Bull $63.08 · Bear $32.20Analysis 2026-02-01; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-08 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-02-01 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-08

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-08. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $74.81
Why
Momentum76 · Δ7d +0.3
Value49 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment34 · Δ7d -2.1
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • 6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-08.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -2.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Currency volatility, global recession risk, or delayed capital-allocation improvements could further depress valuation.
  • • Rising energy and carbon costs would compress margins and increase operating expenses.
  • • Bear case assumes prolonged demand weakness, higher energy/carbon costs, and limited upside from capital allocation, dragging valuation toward analyst lows.

Catalyst clock

2026-02-05

FY2025 / Q4 earnings release

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
76
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.3
Δ21d
-8.7
Value
49
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-6.9
Sentiment
34
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.1
Δ21d
-3.7
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 76.1 / Value 48.7 / Sentiment 34.4

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-02-01. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$63.08
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$46.72
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$32.20
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$54.54B
Beta
1.56
Shares Out
754.04M
P/E (TTM)
13.7
P/S (TTM)
0.59
P/FCF (TTM)
69.43
Rev YoY
+3.0%
EPS YoY
+34.3%
Gross Margin
+8.7%
Op Margin
+4.3%
Net Debt
$7.93B
Current Ratio
1.43
As of 2026-09-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data