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MSTR

StrategyD
Nasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The company continues to expand its bitcoin treasury while reporting positive BTC Yield, substantial cash reserves, reduced convertible debt, and a growing preferred-credit platform. A bitcoin recovery could improve bitcoin-per-share economics and financing flexibility.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
News driver: RBC's Lori Calvasina Sees S&P 500 Upside Despite Fed Risk.
What can break
Bitcoin price declines can create very large unrealized losses and overwhelm operating results.
Momentum
83
Value
35
Sentiment
36
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $90.00 · Bull $150.00 · Bear $55.00Analysis 2026-08-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $232.17
Why
Momentum83 · Δ7d +3.9
Value35 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment36 · Δ7d -4.5
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • News driver: RBC's Lori Calvasina Sees S&P 500 Upside Despite Fed Risk.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -4.5.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Bitcoin price declines can create very large unrealized losses and overwhelm operating results.
  • • Equity and preferred issuance can dilute common shareholders and depends on favorable market liquidity.
  • • The earnings print showed that bitcoin mark-to-market losses overwhelm software operations.

Catalyst clock

2026-07-30

Q2 earnings exposed BTC-driven loss and weaker margin

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
83
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+3.9
Δ21d
+75.2
Value
35
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-19.3
Sentiment
36
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.5
Δ21d
-23.4
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 82.7 / Value 35.1 / Sentiment 36.3

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-04. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$150.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$90.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$55.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$37.53B
Beta
3.55
Shares Out
384.23M
P/E (TTM)
7.7
P/S (TTM)
99.89
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-32.27
Rev YoY
+6.9%
EPS YoY
-175.0%
Gross Margin
+67.6%
Op Margin
-8.1%
Net Debt
$5.94B
Current Ratio
5.39
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data