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MSM

MSC Industrial DirectD
NYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
If upcoming quarterly results and management commentary show stabilizing order trends, margin expansion from pricing/productivity, and working-capital improvements, MSC could re-rate toward the top of the analyst range as industrial customers normalize spend.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.3.
What can break
High dividend payout constraining reinvestment or balance-sheet flexibility
Momentum
69
Value
53
Sentiment
37
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $95.00 · Bull $100.00 · Bear $82.00Analysis 2026-04-02; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-02 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $141.67
Why
Momentum69 · Δ7d -7.0
Value53 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment37 · Δ7d +2.3
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.3.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • High dividend payout constraining reinvestment or balance-sheet flexibility
  • • Industrial order slowdown reducing sales and gross margins
  • • If end-market orders soften and margins compress (inventory markdowns or weaker pricing power), the stock could revisit analyst lows and trade materially below the anchor while dividend payout pressure increases.

Catalyst clock

2026-04-01

Q2 2026 10-Q / 8-K disclosure (results of operations) published

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
69
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-7.0
Δ21d
+2.5
Value
53
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+1.4
Sentiment
37
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.3
Δ21d
+4.0
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 68.9 / Value 52.7 / Sentiment 36.9

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-02. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$100.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$95.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$82.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$6.96B
Beta
0.83
Shares Out
55.85M
P/E (TTM)
24.2
P/S (TTM)
1.28
P/FCF (TTM)
93.90
Rev YoY
+7.8%
EPS YoY
+40.8%
Gross Margin
+40.8%
Op Margin
+8.8%
Net Debt
$482.58M
Current Ratio
1.55
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data