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MSBI

Midland States BancorpF
Nasdaq / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Execution of the repurchase program and steady credit metrics (lower reserves, stable NPLs) combined with a smooth CFO/accounting transition could re-rate the stock toward premium regional multiples; catalysts include visible buyback acceleration or upward guidance revisions.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.
What can break
Capital-return program curtailed by regulators or weak capital metrics
Momentum
72
Value
38
Sentiment
34
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $23.83 · Bull $26.00 · Bear $18.50Analysis 2026-03-26; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-03-26 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $34.75
Why
Momentum72 · Δ7d +1.4
Value38 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment34 · Δ7d -2.1
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Capital-return program curtailed by regulators or weak capital metrics
  • • Credit reserve build or unexpected loan-losses
  • • Prolonged leadership vacuum, surprise credit deterioration, or a pullback in capital returns could push the stock below book-value-adjusted levels and compress multiples amid regional bank risk aversion.

Catalyst clock

2026-06-24

Senior finance leadership change and transition risk

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
72
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.4
Δ21d
-12.0
Value
38
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-0.1
Sentiment
34
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.1
Δ21d
-3.7
Why this grade

Composite grade F. Momentum 71.5 / Value 37.6 / Sentiment 33.5

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-03-26. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$26.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-03-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$23.83
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-03-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$18.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-03-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$704.74M
Beta
0.65
Shares Out
20.75M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-5.5
P/S (TTM)
1.19
P/FCF (TTM)
3.21
Rev YoY
-7.8%
EPS YoY
+85.3%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+13.5%
Net Debt
$314.09M
Current Ratio
0.07
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data