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MSBI

Midland States BancorpD
Nasdaq / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Execution of the repurchase program and steady credit metrics (lower reserves, stable NPLs) combined with a smooth CFO/accounting transition could re-rate the stock toward premium regional multiples; catalysts include visible buyback acceleration or upward guidance revisions.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.8.
What can break
Capital-return program curtailed by regulators or weak capital metrics
Momentum
79
Value
38
Sentiment
40
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $23.83 · Bull $26.00 · Bear $18.50Analysis 2026-03-26; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-03-26 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $33.25
Why
Momentum79 · Δ7d +3.5
Value38 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment40 · Δ7d +2.8
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.8.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Capital-return program curtailed by regulators or weak capital metrics
  • • Credit reserve build or unexpected loan-losses
  • • Prolonged leadership vacuum, surprise credit deterioration, or a pullback in capital returns could push the stock below book-value-adjusted levels and compress multiples amid regional bank risk aversion.

Catalyst clock

2026-06-24

Senior finance leadership change and transition risk

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
79
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.5
Δ21d
-1.4
Value
38
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-8.9
Sentiment
40
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.8
Δ21d
-0.8
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 79.2 / Value 37.7 / Sentiment 39.9

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-03-26. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$26.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-03-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$23.83
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-03-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$18.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-03-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$691.46M
Beta
0.65
Shares Out
20.75M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-5.4
P/S (TTM)
1.19
P/FCF (TTM)
3.21
Rev YoY
-7.8%
EPS YoY
+85.3%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+13.5%
Net Debt
$314.09M
Current Ratio
0.07
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data