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MS

Morgan StanleyC
NYSE / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q3 exceeded the cited $2.92 EPS and $19.95 billion revenue consensus; strong equities and $80.5 billion wealth fee-based flows support earnings power. The company release attributes wealth asset-management revenue growth to higher markets and cumulative fee-based flows.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
News driver: Morgan Stanley Selling Pieces of $3 Billion Royal Caribbean Loan.
What can break
Equity trading rose 41% year over year, making part of the earnings beat sensitive to market activity and client engagement; Q3 EPS and ROTCE also fell from Q2's $3.46 and 26.6%. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-14] [#SEC-8K-2026-07-15]
Momentum
31
Value
54
Sentiment
54
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $184.00 · Bull $215.00 · Bear $155.00Analysis 2026-10-19; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-19 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $216.09
Why
Momentum31 · Δ7d +1.5
Value54 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment54 · Δ7d -6.3
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • News driver: Morgan Stanley Selling Pieces of $3 Billion Royal Caribbean Loan.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Equity trading rose 41% year over year, making part of the earnings beat sensitive to market activity and client engagement; Q3 EPS and ROTCE also fell from Q2's $3.46 and 26.6%. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-14] [#SEC-8K-2026-07-15]
  • • Fixed-income revenue fell 7% year over year; Investment Management revenue fell 12%, including a carried-interest reversal. Morgan Stanley release.
  • • The beat did not prevent a 3.25% post-print decline through October 16.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-16

3Q26 earnings beat, but negative price and analyst digestion

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
31
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+1.5
Δ21d
-11.0
Value
54
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
+0.3
Sentiment
54
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-6.3
Δ21d
-27.9
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 31.1 / Value 54.4 / Sentiment 54.3

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-19. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$215.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-19 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$184.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-19 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$155.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-19 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$288.18B
Beta
1.19
Shares Out
1.57B
P/E (TTM)
19.1
P/S (TTM)
2.54
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
8.02
Rev YoY
+17.5%
EPS YoY
+62.7%
Gross Margin
+55.0%
Op Margin
+20.1%
Net Debt
$466.92B
Current Ratio
1.40
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data