B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$1,750.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
MPWR
Monolithic PowerCNasdaq / Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The post-print bull case strengthened: Q1 beat pre-release consensus, Q2 revenue guidance of $890M-$910M was above the pre-print revenue expectation cited in coverage, and selected firms raised targets after results, including Needham to $1,750 from $1,300, Wolfe to $1,950 from $1,650, and KeyBanc to $2,000 from $1,500 while maintaining positive ratings.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +7.9.
What can break
Capacity expansion toward a near-term $6B goal raises execution risk if utilization or project ramps lag management expectations [#8-K-2026-04-30].
Momentum
45
Value
48
Sentiment
66
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $1,330.00 · Bull $1,750.00 · Bear $1,100.00Analysis 2026-05-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $1,853.36
Why
Momentum45 · Δ7d -13.7
Value48 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment66 · Δ7d +7.9
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +7.9.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Capacity expansion toward a near-term $6B goal raises execution risk if utilization or project ramps lag management expectations [#8-K-2026-04-30].
- • Inventory increased to $619.2M and 157 days on a current-quarter revenue basis, which could become a pressure point if demand timing slips [#8-K-2026-04-30].
- • The bear case is that expectations were already high and may now be higher still.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-30
Q1 beat-and-raise reset the near-term earnings bar higher
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
45
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-13.7
Δ21d
+15.4
Value
48
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-1.7
Sentiment
66
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+7.9
Δ21d
+14.4
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 44.6 / Value 47.9 / Sentiment 65.8
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-03. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$1,330.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$1,100.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$69.59B
Beta
1.45
Shares Out
49.14M
P/E (TTM)
24.4
P/S (TTM)
17.19
P/FCF (TTM)
106.20
Rev YoY
+47.6%
EPS YoY
+85.8%
Gross Margin
+55.2%
Op Margin
+28.7%
Net Debt
-$1.23B
Current Ratio
4.98
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data