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MPTI

M-tron IndustriesB
NYSE American / Technology Hardware & Equipment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Bull case assumes successful subscription-offering uptake and targeted deployment of proceeds to scale defense-facing production, plus one or more contract awards leveraging strengthened cybersecurity/governance — pushing shares toward the high analyst target (≈81).
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.1.
What can break
Cyclical weakness in RF-component demand and channel inventory adjustments
Momentum
22
Value
58
Sentiment
61
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $72.00 · Bull $81.00 · Bear $60.00Analysis 2026-04-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $89.00
Why
Momentum22 · Δ7d +2.1
Value58 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment61 · Δ7d +2.3
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Cyclical weakness in RF-component demand and channel inventory adjustments
  • • Execution risk on margin expansion and working-capital management
  • • Bear case assumes weak subscription uptake, dilution concerns, or no near-term contract wins; earnings miss and multiple compression drive shares toward low-60s.

Catalyst clock

2026-06-30

Subscription rights offering execution / close

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
22
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.1
Δ21d
-9.6
Value
58
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
+1.4
Sentiment
61
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.3
Δ21d
+12.6
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 22.4 / Value 58.0 / Sentiment 60.8

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-08. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$81.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$72.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$60.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$283.43M
Beta
-
Shares Out
4.35M
P/E (TTM)
21.9
P/S (TTM)
2.90
P/FCF (TTM)
21.43
Rev YoY
+13.8%
EPS YoY
-16.4%
Gross Margin
+44.3%
Op Margin
+18.5%
Net Debt
-$20.67M
Current Ratio
16.63
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data