B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$2.20
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
MNTK
Montauk RenewablesFNasdaq / Utilities
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
At $1.19, the stock discounts a lot of bad news: 2025 revenue held roughly flat, RNG production still grew modestly, GreenWave contributed investment income, the Raeger gas-rights extension improved asset duration, and near-term Montauk Ag startup plus the longer-dated Tulsa project offer upside if execution improves [#PR-2026-03-11].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.0.
What can break
Earnings remain exposed to host-landfill feedstock variability, maintenance, and project-specific operating disruptions.
Momentum
73
Value
51
Sentiment
16
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $1.30 · Bull $2.20 · Bear $0.70Analysis 2026-04-15; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-15 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-11
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $2.03
Why
Momentum73 · Δ7d -
Value51 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment16 · Δ7d -
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Earnings remain exposed to host-landfill feedstock variability, maintenance, and project-specific operating disruptions.
- • Higher debt, lower cash, and elevated capex reduce balance-sheet flexibility for a micro-cap name.
- • The current setup is still fragile: 2025 net income fell 82%, adjusted EBITDA declined, average realized RIN pricing dropped 29%, operating costs rose, cash fell to $23.8 million, long-term debt increased sharply, and capex was heavy, which matches the deterministic negative prior and argues for a monitoring stance rather than a strong recovery call [#PR-2026-03-11].
Catalyst clock
2026-04-30
Montauk Ag revenue start is the nearest operating check
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
73
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Value
51
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+9.9
Sentiment
16
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Why this grade
Composite grade F. Momentum 73.2 / Value 51.3 / Sentiment 15.5
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-15. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$1.30
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$0.70
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$266.18M
Beta
0.07
Shares Out
142.34M
P/E (TTM)
87.8
P/S (TTM)
1.47
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-3.21
Rev YoY
+19.7%
EPS YoY
-104.2%
Gross Margin
+34.7%
Op Margin
+1.6%
Net Debt
$114.18M
Current Ratio
0.62
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data