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MKL

Markel GroupB
NYSE / Insurance
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Cycle recovery and better-than-expected reserve releases or underwriting margin expansion drive shares above the analyst high; strong investment returns and selective buybacks amplify upside.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · AMC.
What can break
Adverse reserve development in legacy books
Momentum
51
Value
58
Sentiment
61
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $2,032.82 · Bull $2,320.50 · Bear $1,702.20Analysis 2026-02-05; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-29 · AMC
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-02-05 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $1,927.80
Why
Momentum51 · Δ7d +16.5
Value58 · Δ7d -0.3
Sentiment61 · Δ7d -1.3
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · AMC.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.3.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Adverse reserve development in legacy books
  • • Large investment mark-to-market losses
  • • Adverse reserve development, weaker reinsurance pricing, or investment mark-to-market losses compress multiples; insider selling or weaker guidance triggers re-rating toward lows.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-29 · AMC

Quarterly earnings / FY guidance

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
51
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+16.5
Δ21d
+23.4
Value
58
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.3
Δ21d
-0.3
Sentiment
61
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.3
Δ21d
-18.4
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 50.6 / Value 57.8 / Sentiment 61.1

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-02-05. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$2,320.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-05 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$2,032.82
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-05 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$1,702.20
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-05 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$23.17B
Beta
0.79
Shares Out
12.39M
P/E (TTM)
13.4
P/S (TTM)
1.67
P/FCF (TTM)
11.49
Rev YoY
+12.7%
EPS YoY
+86.7%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+18.6%
Net Debt
$410.55M
Current Ratio
0.71
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data