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MITK

MitekB
Nasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The Q3 print showed strong operating momentum: revenue grew 18%, SaaS revenue grew 36%, adjusted EBITDA rose 59%, and management raised FY26 revenue and margin guidance. The bank consortium milestone and broader channel provide credible longer-term growth hooks [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +7.8.
What can break
Aaron Seyler's CRO transition and the October 1 board-chair transition create additional execution and governance monitoring needs [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06].
Momentum
65
Value
61
Sentiment
70
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $18.50 · Bull $21.00 · Bear $14.00Analysis 2026-08-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $23.63
Why
Momentum65 · Δ7d -17.1
Value61 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment70 · Δ7d +7.8
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +7.8.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Aaron Seyler's CRO transition and the October 1 board-chair transition create additional execution and governance monitoring needs [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06].
  • • Cash and investments were $100.2 million at June 30, down $96.3 million from September 30 after convertible-note retirement; LTM free cash flow also declined year over year [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06].
  • • Forward visibility remains limited for this low-coverage small-cap.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-15

Post-earnings digestion of raised FY26 outlook

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
65
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-17.1
Δ21d
-11.7
Value
61
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+2.9
Sentiment
70
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+7.8
Δ21d
+10.4
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 65.0 / Value 60.9 / Sentiment 70.1

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-08. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$21.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$18.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$14.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$836.12M
Beta
1.07
Shares Out
45.12M
P/E (TTM)
55.2
P/S (TTM)
2.60
P/FCF (TTM)
8.61
Rev YoY
+18.2%
EPS YoY
+236.2%
Gross Margin
+75.6%
Op Margin
+18.1%
Net Debt
-$33.53M
Current Ratio
2.74
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data