B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$135.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
MIRM
MirumBNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The checked evidence supports a constructive post-print read: strong Q1 product sales, a 2026 guide raise, positive recent VISTAS and AZURE-1 milestone language in the earnings update, and a cash position that management says supports operations for at least 12 months [#8-K-2026-05-06] [#10-Q-2026-05-06].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +5.5.
What can break
Late-2026 pipeline value remains highly dependent on successful AZURE and EXPAND readouts, with normal biotech binary-risk around efficacy, safety, and regulatory interpretation.
Momentum
12
Value
41
Sentiment
83
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $118.00 · Bull $135.00 · Bear $82.00Analysis 2026-05-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $138.21
Why
Momentum12 · Δ7d +4.5
Value41 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment83 · Δ7d +5.5
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +5.5.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Late-2026 pipeline value remains highly dependent on successful AZURE and EXPAND readouts, with normal biotech binary-risk around efficacy, safety, and regulatory interpretation.
- • Mirum’s March 31, 2026 10-Q states its 4.00% convertible senior notes due 2029 are convertible at holders’ option during the second quarter of 2026, creating potential cash-use or dilution sensitivity depending on settlement choices.
- • Forward value still depends on several binary development and regulatory milestones, while Q1 GAAP results were heavily distorted by the Bluejay acquisition, including a $726.3 million acquired IPR&D charge and accelerated Bluejay stock compensation; the 10-Q also shows the 2029 converts are currently holder-convertible during Q2 2026, adding balance-sheet and dilution overhang [#10-Q-2026-05-06].
Catalyst clock
2026-05-06
Q1 2026 update raised revenue guidance and reinforced commercial execution
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
12
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.5
Δ21d
-6.9
Value
41
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+0.1
Sentiment
83
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.5
Δ21d
+3.9
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 12.1 / Value 41.2 / Sentiment 83.4
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$118.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$82.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$6.48B
Beta
0.49
Shares Out
64.93M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-214.5
P/S (TTM)
8.28
P/FCF (TTM)
88.12
Rev YoY
+37.9%
EPS YoY
+799.7%
Gross Margin
+81.7%
Op Margin
-14.8%
Net Debt
-$63.88M
Current Ratio
2.86
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data