B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$6.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
MGNX
MacroGenicsCNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The post-earnings update was directionally better than the prior baseline because management paired the May 13, 2026 Q1 release with a clearer business reset: cash runway now extends through 2028 if the Bora deal closes, and the company still expects multiple 2026 pipeline milestones. Checked secondary coverage characterized the quarter as a slight EPS miss but a revenue beat, which is less important here than the reduced financing pressure and preserved catalyst calendar.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -2.2.
What can break
MacroGenics is a low-coverage small-cap biotech, so thin analyst follow-through, sparse external validation and a weak direct-peer set can amplify volatility around limited news flow.
Momentum
60
Value
41
Sentiment
67
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $4.20 · Bull $6.50 · Bear $2.40Analysis 2026-05-16; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-16 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $8.00
Why
Momentum60 · Δ7d +20.3
Value41 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment67 · Δ7d -2.2
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -2.2.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • MacroGenics is a low-coverage small-cap biotech, so thin analyst follow-through, sparse external validation and a weak direct-peer set can amplify volatility around limited news flow.
- • Quarterly cash burn remains meaningful: March 31, 2026 cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities were $154.2 million, down from $189.9 million at December 31, 2025, and MacroGenics still posted a $36.8 million net loss in Q1 2026.
- • The upgraded liquidity case is still conditional.
Catalyst clock
2026-06-30
Initial MGC026 clinical data is the nearest pipeline sentiment test
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
60
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+20.3
Δ21d
+2.8
Value
41
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+0.1
Sentiment
67
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.2
Δ21d
-5.0
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 60.0 / Value 41.2 / Sentiment 67.3
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-16. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$4.20
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$2.40
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$258.62M
Beta
1.50
Shares Out
63.7M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-3.4
P/S (TTM)
0.85
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-3.94
Rev YoY
+378.0%
EPS YoY
-153.4%
Gross Margin
+77.9%
Op Margin
-24.3%
Net Debt
-$83.15M
Current Ratio
2.96
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data