B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$24.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
MGNI
MagniteDNasdaq / Media & Entertainment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
CTV growth, improving profitability, and rising free cash flow could offset DV+ softness and support upside toward the low-to-mid $20s. Q1 results were solid, with contribution ex-TAC up 10% and adjusted EBITDA up 16% year over year.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.0.
What can break
CTV growth may decelerate or fail to offset DV+ weakness.
Momentum
93
Value
55
Sentiment
36
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $18.50 · Bull $24.00 · Bear $14.50Analysis 2026-07-18; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-18 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $28.16
Why
Momentum93 · Δ7d -1.2
Value55 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment36 · Δ7d +1.0
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • CTV growth may decelerate or fail to offset DV+ weakness.
- • Competitive and regulatory pressure from larger advertising platforms may constrain pricing or take rates. [#10-K-2026-02-25]
- • The current deterministic signal is negative, and the thesis depends heavily on continued CTV execution.
Catalyst clock
2026-07-31
Recent insider selling may cap near-term momentum
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
93
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.2
Δ21d
-2.6
Value
55
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+6.2
Sentiment
36
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.0
Δ21d
+5.5
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 92.9 / Value 54.8 / Sentiment 36.5
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-18. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$18.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$14.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$3.47B
Beta
2.38
Shares Out
143.42M
P/E (TTM)
46.9
P/S (TTM)
3.43
P/FCF (TTM)
14.99
Rev YoY
+11.2%
EPS YoY
+75.2%
Gross Margin
+64.6%
Op Margin
+15.6%
Net Debt
$73M
Current Ratio
1.02
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data