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MGM

MGM Resorts InternationalC
NYSE / Consumer Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The bull case is that MGM is moving back to top-line stability in Las Vegas while China, LeoVegas/MGM Digital, and BetMGM provide mix improvement; Northfield proceeds and remaining buyback capacity add capital-return support.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +6.4.
What can break
Balance-sheet flexibility is better after the asset sale, but long-term debt still stood at about $6.4 billion at March 31, limiting room for a more aggressive rerating if operations soften.
Momentum
32
Value
56
Sentiment
57
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $39.00 · Bull $45.00 · Bear $31.00Analysis 2026-05-12; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-08 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-12 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-08

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-08. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $50.96
Why
Momentum32 · Δ7d -0.8
Value56 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment57 · Δ7d +6.4
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +6.4.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Balance-sheet flexibility is better after the asset sale, but long-term debt still stood at about $6.4 billion at March 31, limiting room for a more aggressive rerating if operations soften.
  • • BetMGM cut 2026 net revenue guidance to $2.9-$3.1 billion from $3.1-$3.2 billion, signaling a softer online sports backdrop even as EBITDA guidance was maintained at the lower end.
  • • The bear case is that record revenue is not translating into earnings leverage: Q1 adjusted EPS fell to $0.49 from $0.69, consolidated adjusted EBITDA fell to $580 million from $637 million, Strip EBITDAR declined 8%, and BetMGM already trimmed its 2026 revenue outlook.

Catalyst clock

2026-06-30

Las Vegas Strip growth needs to hold into Q2

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
32
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
-0.8
Δ21d
+1.1
Value
56
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-0.3
Sentiment
57
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+6.4
Δ21d
+8.3
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 32.1 / Value 55.8 / Sentiment 57.3

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-12. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$45.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-12 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$39.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-12 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$31.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-12 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$11.01B
Beta
1.45
Shares Out
251.59M
P/E (TTM)
225.6
P/S (TTM)
0.57
P/FCF (TTM)
7.18
Rev YoY
+1.0%
EPS YoY
+521.9%
Gross Margin
+38.0%
Op Margin
+6.5%
Net Debt
$29.49B
Current Ratio
1.33
As of 2026-09-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data