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MGM

MGM Resorts InternationalA
NYSE / Consumer Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Strip revenue and EBITDAR growth, regional same-store revenue gains and digital growth could support a higher standalone valuation if earnings conversion improves. MGM reported record Q2 consolidated revenue, but this is not yet a demonstrated margin recovery.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
2 setup hits (3d) with net bearish as of 2026-10-24.
What can break
BetMGM expects 2026 results near the low end of guidance and delayed its longer-term $500 million adjusted EBITDA ambition amid regulatory complexity. BetMGM update
Momentum
4
Value
57
Sentiment
76
Setup hits (3d)
2 · Net Bearish
AI TargetsBase $34.00 · Bull $41.00 · Bear $25.00Analysis 2026-09-30; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-28 · AMC
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-30 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bearish
Target $42.42
Why
Momentum4 · Δ7d -1.5
Value57 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment76 · Δ7d +3.4
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bearish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • 2 setup hits (3d) with net bearish as of 2026-10-24.
  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-28 · AMC.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.4.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • BetMGM expects 2026 results near the low end of guidance and delayed its longer-term $500 million adjusted EBITDA ambition amid regulatory complexity. BetMGM update
  • • Further repricing after People Incorporated withdrew its MGM acquisition proposal; a reported discussion of MGM buying People remains unconfirmed by MGM and is not assumed in the targets. MGM statement Reuters report
  • • The withdrawn takeover proposal removes a valuation backstop.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-28 · AMC

October 28 results test whether Strip growth is translating into earnings

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
4
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-1.5
Δ21d
-10.1
Value
57
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
+0.4
Sentiment
76
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+3.4
Δ21d
-0.5
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 4.2 / Value 57.0 / Sentiment 76.0

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-30. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$41.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$34.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$25.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$7.06B
Beta
1.45
Shares Out
251.59M
P/E (TTM)
225.6
P/S (TTM)
0.57
P/FCF (TTM)
7.18
Rev YoY
+1.0%
EPS YoY
+521.9%
Gross Margin
+38.0%
Op Margin
+6.5%
Net Debt
$29.49B
Current Ratio
1.33
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data