B+
Bull case
24%
Probability
Target price
$21.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
MG
Mistras GroupCNYSE / Commercial & Professional Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The post-earnings bull read is that MISTRAS delivered a clean Q1 follow-up to the stronger FY2025 setup: revenue beat checked secondary consensus, profitability turned positive, strategic markets offset Oil & Gas weakness, and management reaffirmed full-year revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-11-02.
What can break
Free cash flow was negative $4.5M in Q1 and operating cash flow declined to $2.8M, leaving the deleveraging story dependent on better working-capital performance later in 2026.
Momentum
80
Value
59
Sentiment
42
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $17.00 · Bull $21.00 · Bear $14.00Analysis 2026-05-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-11-02
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-28 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-28
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-28
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-28. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $22.75
Why
Momentum80 · Δ7d +1.6
Value59 · Δ7d +0.5
Sentiment42 · Δ7d +5.7
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-11-02.
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.5.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Free cash flow was negative $4.5M in Q1 and operating cash flow declined to $2.8M, leaving the deleveraging story dependent on better working-capital performance later in 2026.
- • Gross debt increased to $181.4M at March 31, 2026, and net debt rose sequentially, so any further cash conversion miss would tighten the margin for execution.
- • The bear read is that the quarter did not remove the core concerns: Oil & Gas remains a large revenue driver, management still flagged Q2 pressure from crude-price-related inspection deferrals, cash conversion weakened, and debt rose sequentially.
Catalyst clock
2026-11-02
Cash conversion and debt reduction are the key post-earnings proof point
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
80
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+1.6
Δ21d
-5.2
Value
59
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.5
Δ21d
+0.9
Sentiment
42
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.7
Δ21d
-1.0
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 79.7 / Value 58.8 / Sentiment 42.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
46%
Probability
Target price
$17.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$14.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-27
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$651.54M
Beta
0.89
Shares Out
31.86M
P/E (TTM)
23.7
P/S (TTM)
0.59
P/FCF (TTM)
16.66
Rev YoY
+4.2%
EPS YoY
+141.9%
Gross Margin
+27.1%
Op Margin
+7.7%
Net Debt
$214.61M
Current Ratio
1.71
As of 2026-10-28 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data