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MFG

Mizuho Financial GroupD
NYSE / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Bull: steady NIM improvement, stronger fee income, and a clean regulatory outlook drive a re-rating toward peers; capital returns increase investor support.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.9.
What can break
Prolonged weak global trading revenues
Momentum
50
Value
53
Sentiment
40
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $7.50 · Bull $8.50 · Bear $5.50Analysis 2025-09-27; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2025-09-27 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $12.60
Why
Momentum50 · Δ7d -16.1
Value53 · Δ7d +1.9
Sentiment40 · Δ7d +5.7
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.9.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Prolonged weak global trading revenues
  • • Rapid yen appreciation compressing USD-translated earnings
  • • Bear: an earnings miss, adverse FX moves, or regulatory shocks compress multiples and push the ADR below book/discounted intrinsic value.

Catalyst clock

No dated catalyst is available.

Quarterly results (operating profit / margins)

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
50
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
-16.1
Δ21d
-26.3
Value
53
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.9
Δ21d
+4.4
Sentiment
40
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.7
Δ21d
+7.5
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 49.5 / Value 52.7 / Sentiment 40.1

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2025-09-27. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$8.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-09-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$7.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-09-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$5.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-09-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$115.37B
Beta
0.40
Shares Out
12.17B
P/E (TTM)
16.6
P/S (TTM)
3.69
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-4.55
Rev YoY
+3.3%
EPS YoY
+35.9%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+18.0%
Net Debt
$40.16B
Current Ratio
1.68
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data