B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$540.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
MEDP
MedpaceDNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Primary evidence is fundamentally constructive: Q1 revenue rose 26.5% to $706.6 million, net new awards rose 23.7% to $618.4 million, EBITDA rose 25.9% to $149.4 million, and operating cash flow was $151.8 million [#SEC-8K-2026-04-22]. If Q2 shows book-to-bill normalization and unchanged or better guidance, the stock can regain a premium multiple.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.4.
What can break
Clinical CRO competition remains intense; Medpace identifies IQVIA, ICON, PPD/Thermo Fisher, Fortrea, and specialty/regional CROs as key competitors [#10-K-2026-02-10].
Momentum
75
Value
62
Sentiment
42
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $503.00 · Bull $540.00 · Bear $395.00Analysis 2026-06-18; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-06-18 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $601.09
Why
Momentum75 · Δ7d -8.8
Value62 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment42 · Δ7d +3.4
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.4.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Clinical CRO competition remains intense; Medpace identifies IQVIA, ICON, PPD/Thermo Fisher, Fortrea, and specialty/regional CROs as key competitors [#10-K-2026-02-10].
- • Leadership changes around the President role and expanded operations leadership create execution-monitoring risk even though filings say the departure was not due to disagreement.
- • The near-term debate is that Q1 book-to-bill was only 0.88x and net income margin fell to 17.5% from 20.5% a year earlier, while the President transition and new operations structure add an execution variable [#SEC-8K-2026-04-22] [#8-K-2026-06-04].
Catalyst clock
2026-07-22
Q2 2026 print will test awards momentum and book-to-bill recovery
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
75
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-8.8
Δ21d
-4.3
Value
62
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+0.3
Sentiment
42
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.4
Δ21d
+4.0
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 74.6 / Value 62.3 / Sentiment 42.1
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-06-18. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$503.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$395.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$16.67B
Beta
1.42
Shares Out
27.91M
P/E (TTM)
41.0
P/S (TTM)
7.01
P/FCF (TTM)
24.42
Rev YoY
+17.2%
EPS YoY
+37.2%
Gross Margin
+27.8%
Op Margin
+21.0%
Net Debt
-$360.2M
Current Ratio
0.73
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data