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MDA

MDA SpaceB
NYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Primary sources support a credible execution story: record 2025 revenue and EBITDA, a still-large $4.0 billion backlog, vertical integration from SatixFy, and a visible pipeline tied to sovereign and commercial space programs [#PR-2026-03-04].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.0.
What can break
Backlog conversion slows or major constellation programs slip, limiting 2026 revenue realization.
Momentum
39
Value
43
Sentiment
73
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $34.00 · Bull $39.00 · Bear $27.00Analysis 2026-04-15; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-15 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $46.03
Why
Momentum39 · Δ7d -8.2
Value43 · Δ7d -0.5
Sentiment73 · Δ7d -0.0
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Backlog conversion slows or major constellation programs slip, limiting 2026 revenue realization.
  • • Defence and sovereign pipeline opportunities fail to convert into firm awards on the expected timeline.
  • • Current evidence is still thin for a stronger upside call.

Catalyst clock

2026-06-30

IPO proceeds may ease leverage and fund near-term strategic flexibility

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
39
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-8.2
Δ21d
-18.4
Value
43
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.5
Δ21d
-0.6
Sentiment
73
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-1.1
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 38.5 / Value 42.5 / Sentiment 73.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-15. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$39.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$34.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$27.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$4.61B
Beta
-0.02
Shares Out
162.13M
P/E (TTM)
32.6
P/S (TTM)
2.36
P/FCF (TTM)
7.48
Rev YoY
+33.6%
EPS YoY
-9.0%
Gross Margin
+18.8%
Op Margin
+5.5%
Net Debt
$189.02M
Current Ratio
0.75
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data