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MDA

MDA SpaceB
NYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Primary sources support a credible execution story: record 2025 revenue and EBITDA, a still-large $4.0 billion backlog, vertical integration from SatixFy, and a visible pipeline tied to sovereign and commercial space programs [#PR-2026-03-04].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.4.
What can break
Backlog conversion slows or major constellation programs slip, limiting 2026 revenue realization.
Momentum
25
Value
43
Sentiment
83
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $34.00 · Bull $39.00 · Bear $27.00Analysis 2026-04-15; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-15 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $48.08
Why
Momentum25 · Δ7d -17.4
Value43 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment83 · Δ7d -1.4
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.4.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Backlog conversion slows or major constellation programs slip, limiting 2026 revenue realization.
  • • Defence and sovereign pipeline opportunities fail to convert into firm awards on the expected timeline.
  • • Current evidence is still thin for a stronger upside call.

Catalyst clock

2026-06-30

IPO proceeds may ease leverage and fund near-term strategic flexibility

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
25
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-17.4
Δ21d
-14.5
Value
43
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-4.4
Sentiment
83
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.4
Δ21d
+18.1
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 24.8 / Value 42.7 / Sentiment 82.6

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-15. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$39.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$34.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$27.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$5.71B
Beta
-0.02
Shares Out
162.06M
P/E (TTM)
32.6
P/S (TTM)
2.36
P/FCF (TTM)
7.48
Rev YoY
+33.6%
EPS YoY
-9.0%
Gross Margin
+18.8%
Op Margin
+5.5%
Net Debt
$189.02M
Current Ratio
0.75
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data