B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$112.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
MCY
Mercury GeneralBNYSE / Insurance
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The strongest post-print argument is that Q1 showed real underwriting recovery rather than only an easy compare: combined ratio fell below 90%, catastrophe losses were far lower year over year, premium growth stayed double digit, and the July 2026 homeowners rate increase offers a visible follow-on tailwind [#8-K-2026-05-05] [#10-K-2026-02-17].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-11-03 · AMC.
What can break
Auto loss severity and frequency remain a pressure point even as the ex-cat core loss ratio improved [#10-Q-2026-05-05].
Momentum
54
Value
59
Sentiment
56
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $104.00 · Bull $112.00 · Bear $88.00Analysis 2026-05-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-11-03 · AMC
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-27 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-27
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-27
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-27. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $120.00
Why
Momentum54 · Δ7d -10.5
Value59 · Δ7d +0.2
Sentiment56 · Δ7d -0.4
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-11-03 · AMC.
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.2.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Auto loss severity and frequency remain a pressure point even as the ex-cat core loss ratio improved [#10-Q-2026-05-05].
- • California rate approval timing is a real operational risk; the 10-K says delayed or reduced approvals can limit profitable operation, especially with consumer-group intervention in California [#10-K-2026-02-17].
- • The counterpoint is that Q1 still included adverse homeowners development and auto severity/frequency pressure, while catastrophe exposure remains structurally high in Mercury’s footprint; a good quarter does not fully de-risk reserve adequacy or future wildfire/storm volatility [#10-Q-2026-05-05] [#10-K-2026-02-17].
Catalyst clock
2026-11-03 · AMC
Post-earnings estimate digestion after sharp Q1 underwriting rebound
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
54
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-10.5
Δ21d
-0.8
Value
59
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.2
Δ21d
+0.3
Sentiment
56
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.4
Δ21d
-9.0
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 54.4 / Value 58.6 / Sentiment 56.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
1%
Probability
Target price
$104.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$88.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-27
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$5.68B
Beta
0.96
Shares Out
55.39M
P/E (TTM)
11.4
P/S (TTM)
0.86
P/FCF (TTM)
5.45
Rev YoY
+13.8%
EPS YoY
+58.3%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+18.8%
Net Debt
-$727.57M
Current Ratio
0.84
As of 2026-10-27 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data