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MCY

Mercury GeneralB
NYSE / Insurance
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The strongest post-print argument is that Q1 showed real underwriting recovery rather than only an easy compare: combined ratio fell below 90%, catastrophe losses were far lower year over year, premium growth stayed double digit, and the July 2026 homeowners rate increase offers a visible follow-on tailwind [#8-K-2026-05-05] [#10-K-2026-02-17].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-11-03 · AMC.
What can break
Auto loss severity and frequency remain a pressure point even as the ex-cat core loss ratio improved [#10-Q-2026-05-05].
Momentum
51
Value
59
Sentiment
59
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $104.00 · Bull $112.00 · Bear $88.00Analysis 2026-05-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-11-03 · AMC
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-28 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-28

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-28. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $120.00
Why
Momentum51 · Δ7d +6.4
Value59 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment59 · Δ7d +3.7
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-11-03 · AMC.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Auto loss severity and frequency remain a pressure point even as the ex-cat core loss ratio improved [#10-Q-2026-05-05].
  • • California rate approval timing is a real operational risk; the 10-K says delayed or reduced approvals can limit profitable operation, especially with consumer-group intervention in California [#10-K-2026-02-17].
  • • The counterpoint is that Q1 still included adverse homeowners development and auto severity/frequency pressure, while catastrophe exposure remains structurally high in Mercury’s footprint; a good quarter does not fully de-risk reserve adequacy or future wildfire/storm volatility [#10-Q-2026-05-05] [#10-K-2026-02-17].

Catalyst clock

2026-11-03 · AMC

Post-earnings estimate digestion after sharp Q1 underwriting rebound

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
51
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+6.4
Δ21d
+9.0
Value
59
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
+0.3
Sentiment
59
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.7
Δ21d
-4.8
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 51.2 / Value 58.6 / Sentiment 58.6

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-08. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$112.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
1%
Probability
Target price
$104.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$88.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$5.68B
Beta
0.96
Shares Out
55.39M
P/E (TTM)
11.4
P/S (TTM)
0.86
P/FCF (TTM)
5.45
Rev YoY
+13.8%
EPS YoY
+58.3%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+18.8%
Net Debt
-$727.57M
Current Ratio
0.84
As of 2026-10-28 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data