MCY

Mercury GeneralB

NYSE / Insurance

At close

2026-07-21

Current thesis

The strongest post-print argument is that Q1 showed real underwriting recovery rather than only an easy compare: combined ratio fell below 90%, catastrophe losses were far lower year over year, premium growth stayed double digit, and the July 2026 homeowners rate increase offers a visible follow-on tailwind [#8-K-2026-05-05] [#10-K-2026-02-17].

Posture

Constructive

Lead driver

Value

What changed

Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.2.

What can break

Auto loss severity and frequency remain a pressure point even as the ex-cat core loss ratio improved [#10-Q-2026-05-05].

Momentum

Value

Sentiment

Setup hits (3d)

0 · Net Neutral

AI TargetsBase $104.00 · Bull $112.00 · Bear $88.00

Data freshness

Prices

As of 2026-07-21

Fundamentals

As of 2026-07-21 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1

Scores

As of 2026-07-21 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP

AI Memo

As of 2026-05-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Investment thesis

As of 2026-07-21

Supporting evidence

What

Grade B · Constructive

Confidence Medium · Net Neutral

Target $120.00

Why

Momentum54 · Δ7d -6.5

Value59 · Δ7d +0.2

Sentiment51 · Δ7d +0.8

So what

Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals

Momentum

26% active weight

Current posture

7d trendSoftening

Δ7d

-6.5

Δ21d

-12.6

Value

39% active weight

Current posture

7d trendFlat

Δ7d

+0.2

Δ21d

+0.4

Sentiment

34% active weight

Current posture

7d trendFlat

Δ7d

+0.8

Δ21d

-3.0

Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 53.9 / Value 59.1 / Sentiment 51.4

Fundamentals (TTM)

As of 2026-07-21

Market Cap

$5.86B

Beta

0.96

Shares Out

55.39M

P/E (TTM)

11.4

P/S (TTM)

0.86

P/FCF (TTM)

5.45

Rev YoY

+10.5%

EPS YoY

-275.8%

Gross Margin

Op Margin

+9.7%

Net Debt

-$727.57M

Current Ratio

0.75

As of 2026-07-21 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology