B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$108.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
MCRI
Monarch Casino ResortDNasdaq / Consumer Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Primary sources support a solid historical operating story: 2025 net revenue rose 4.4%, adjusted EBITDA rose 10.4%, margins expanded, both properties reportedly gained share, and the balance sheet ended 2025 with cash plus no outstanding revolver borrowings [#8-K-2026-02-04] [#10-K-2026-02-24].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.1.
What can break
Catalyst density is low after the February 4, 2026 earnings and dividend release, reducing near-term re-rating support.
Momentum
55
Value
60
Sentiment
37
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $95.00 · Bull $108.00 · Bear $85.00Analysis 2026-04-15; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-15 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $129.86
Why
Momentum55 · Δ7d -1.9
Value60 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment37 · Δ7d +3.1
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.1.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Catalyst density is low after the February 4, 2026 earnings and dividend release, reducing near-term re-rating support.
- • Labor shortages and wage inflation remain explicit risks in both markets.
- • Forward visibility is still limited because the main unresolved swing factor is litigation, while Reno promotional intensity, labor cost pressure, and two-property concentration can offset otherwise solid execution; deterministic scores also lean negative with low catalyst density, so this should remain a tentative monitoring memo rather than a standard-conviction call.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-15
Next capital-return checkpoint after February dividend and 2025 buybacks
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
55
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.9
Δ21d
+12.2
Value
60
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+0.7
Sentiment
37
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.1
Δ21d
+5.5
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 55.0 / Value 59.5 / Sentiment 36.7
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-15. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$95.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$85.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$2.22B
Beta
1.35
Shares Out
17.92M
P/E (TTM)
21.9
P/S (TTM)
3.26
P/FCF (TTM)
17.51
Rev YoY
+4.2%
EPS YoY
+23.5%
Gross Margin
+46.9%
Op Margin
+26.5%
Net Debt
-$83.17M
Current Ratio
1.21
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data