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MBWM

Mercantile BankB
Nasdaq / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q3 revenue grew 17.3% year over year, net interest margin rose to 3.73% from 3.49%, and management cited local-deposit growth and low credit costs. Adjusted EPS beat the reported $1.35 consensus.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.5.
What can break
A smooth Q1 2027 core and digital banking conversion is not assured. Company earnings release.
Momentum
60
Value
61
Sentiment
53
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $60.00 · Bull $66.00 · Bear $52.00Analysis 2026-10-23; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $64.17
Why
Momentum60 · Δ7d -1.0
Value61 · Δ7d -0.5
Sentiment53 · Δ7d -6.0
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.5.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • A smooth Q1 2027 core and digital banking conversion is not assured. Company earnings release.
  • • Q3 noninterest expense rose $8.8 million year over year, including Eastern Michigan Bank costs and higher compensation; sustained cost growth could offset revenue gains. Company earnings release.
  • • GAAP EPS fell to $1.39 from $1.46 a year earlier, while noninterest expense rose to $43.6 million from $34.8 million.

Catalyst clock

2026-11-20

Q3 earnings beat and post-print reassessment

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
60
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-1.0
Δ21d
-14.8
Value
61
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.5
Δ21d
-0.5
Sentiment
53
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-6.0
Δ21d
-14.7
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 60.4 / Value 60.9 / Sentiment 53.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-23. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$66.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$60.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$52.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$1.06B
Beta
0.90
Shares Out
17.29M
P/E (TTM)
9.2
P/S (TTM)
3.30
P/FCF (TTM)
19.01
Rev YoY
+5.1%
EPS YoY
+7.7%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+29.7%
Net Debt
$678.32M
Current Ratio
0.07
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data