B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$265.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
MATX
MatsonBNYSE / Transportation
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q2 materially exceeded the prior-year period, China demand and freight rates remain strong, the service is expected to be near capacity through peak season, and full-year operating income is guided above 2025 [#SEC-8K-2026-08-03].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -3.4.
What can break
Fuel-price recovery, U.S.-China trade policy, and broader transpacific market conditions could pressure margins.
Momentum
91
Value
57
Sentiment
63
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $235.00 · Bull $265.00 · Bear $190.00Analysis 2026-08-17; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-18 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-17 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-18
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-18
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-18. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $263.00
Why
Momentum91 · Δ7d +8.8
Value57 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment63 · Δ7d -3.4
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -3.4.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Fuel-price recovery, U.S.-China trade policy, and broader transpacific market conditions could pressure margins.
- • Lower Hawaii and Alaska volumes and execution or capital-spending risk associated with the Aloha Class vessel program.
- • The current earnings strength is exposed to normalization of transpacific rates and demand, traditional Q4 seasonality, fuel costs, trade-policy changes, and weaker Hawaii and Alaska volumes.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-03
Q2 beat and raised FY2026 outlook
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
91
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+8.8
Δ21d
+3.9
Value
57
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
0.0
Sentiment
63
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.4
Δ21d
-8.7
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 90.7 / Value 56.8 / Sentiment 63.4
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-17. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$235.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$190.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$6.58B
Beta
1.34
Shares Out
29.9M
P/E (TTM)
9.6
P/S (TTM)
1.16
P/FCF (TTM)
34.03
Rev YoY
+16.7%
EPS YoY
+46.1%
Gross Margin
+23.0%
Op Margin
+14.4%
Net Debt
$585.2M
Current Ratio
0.89
As of 2026-09-18 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data