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MATV

MativA
NYSE / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q2's 14.1% adjusted EBITDA margin and $60.4 million free cash flow provide evidence that pricing and cost actions can improve profitability and support debt reduction. A Q3 repeat would strengthen the case.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.0.
What can break
FAM sales declined 1.3% year over year in Q2 as lower Filtration & Netting volume/mix persisted; manufacturing costs also pressured the segment. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05] SEC earnings exhibit
Momentum
86
Value
65
Sentiment
55
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $12.00 · Bull $15.50 · Bear $7.50Analysis 2026-10-18; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-18 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $21.00
Why
Momentum86 · Δ7d -2.8
Value65 · Δ7d -1.0
Sentiment55 · Δ7d -8.0
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • FAM sales declined 1.3% year over year in Q2 as lower Filtration & Netting volume/mix persisted; manufacturing costs also pressured the segment. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05] SEC earnings exhibit
  • • Net debt of $908.2 million at June 30 leaves deleveraging dependent on sustained cash generation. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05] SEC earnings exhibit
  • • FAM volume/mix remained weak, manufacturing costs rose, net debt remained substantial, and the Wisconsin disruption's financial effect was unquantified in the Q2 filing.

Catalyst clock

2026-11-04

Q3 results test whether Q2 margin gains held

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
86
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.8
Δ21d
-12.3
Value
65
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.0
Δ21d
-1.0
Sentiment
55
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-8.0
Δ21d
-19.9
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 85.6 / Value 64.6 / Sentiment 55.4

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-18. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$15.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$12.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$7.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$665.59M
Beta
0.81
Shares Out
55.19M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-1.9
P/S (TTM)
0.33
P/FCF (TTM)
9.98
Rev YoY
+1.2%
EPS YoY
-134.8%
Gross Margin
+16.1%
Op Margin
+4.0%
Net Debt
$994.1M
Current Ratio
1.98
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data