B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$27.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
M
Macy'sANYSE / Consumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The Q1 beat-and-raise and positive comparable-sales trend support the turnaround case, while upcoming results could validate Reimagine execution and luxury-banner momentum [#8-K-2026-06-03] [#SEC-8K-2026-06-03].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
1 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-24.
What can break
Department-store traffic and the shift toward e-commerce and off-mall retail remain structural pressures.
Momentum
76
Value
71
Sentiment
48
Setup hits (3d)
1 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $23.00 · Bull $27.00 · Bear $18.00Analysis 2026-09-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $23.00
Why
Momentum76 · Δ7d -3.3
Value71 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment48 · Δ7d +0.6
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bullish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • 1 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-24.
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Department-store traffic and the shift toward e-commerce and off-mall retail remain structural pressures.
- • Promotional intensity, tariffs, and discretionary-spending weakness could constrain gross margin and earnings.
- • Pre-release consensus expects approximately 0.37 EPS on $4.82 billion revenue, implying year-over-year EPS decline and minimal revenue growth.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-03
Bluemercury leadership transition
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
76
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-3.3
Δ21d
+8.1
Value
71
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-0.0
Sentiment
48
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+0.6
Δ21d
-15.1
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 76.0 / Value 70.8 / Sentiment 48.3
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-04. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$23.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$18.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$6.29B
Beta
1.52
Shares Out
261.18M
P/E (TTM)
13.4
P/S (TTM)
0.27
P/FCF (TTM)
10.13
Rev YoY
+2.1%
EPS YoY
+70.6%
Gross Margin
+39.4%
Op Margin
+3.9%
Net Debt
$4.33B
Current Ratio
1.48
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data