B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$27.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
M
Macy'sCNYSE / Consumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The Q1 beat-and-raise and positive comparable-sales trend support the turnaround case, while upcoming results could validate Reimagine execution and luxury-banner momentum [#8-K-2026-06-03] [#SEC-8K-2026-06-03].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.7.
What can break
Department-store traffic and the shift toward e-commerce and off-mall retail remain structural pressures.
Momentum
47
Value
71
Sentiment
56
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $23.00 · Bull $27.00 · Bear $18.00Analysis 2026-09-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-08 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-08
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-08
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-08. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $23.20
Why
Momentum47 · Δ7d +8.1
Value71 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment56 · Δ7d -0.7
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.7.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Department-store traffic and the shift toward e-commerce and off-mall retail remain structural pressures.
- • Promotional intensity, tariffs, and discretionary-spending weakness could constrain gross margin and earnings.
- • Pre-release consensus expects approximately 0.37 EPS on $4.82 billion revenue, implying year-over-year EPS decline and minimal revenue growth.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-03
Bluemercury leadership transition
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
47
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+8.1
Δ21d
-10.5
Value
71
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-0.5
Sentiment
56
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.7
Δ21d
+3.6
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 47.3 / Value 71.1 / Sentiment 56.2
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-04. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$23.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$18.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$6.11B
Beta
1.52
Shares Out
263.04M
P/E (TTM)
13.4
P/S (TTM)
0.27
P/FCF (TTM)
10.13
Rev YoY
+2.1%
EPS YoY
+70.6%
Gross Margin
+39.4%
Op Margin
+3.9%
Net Debt
$4.33B
Current Ratio
1.48
As of 2026-09-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data