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LYFT

LyftC
Nasdaq / Transportation
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The primary-source bull case is that Lyft is still showing real operating improvement: Q1 active riders rose 17% to 28.3M, gross bookings rose 19% to $4.946B, adjusted EBITDA rose 25% to $132.8M, and trailing-12-month free cash flow reached $1.1B, while Q2 bookings guidance implies continued double-digit growth. [#8-K-2026-05-07]
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.2.
What can break
International expansion and AV initiatives add execution risk; management cited the UK expansion and future Nashville AV operations, while the 10-Q also flags competition from Waymo, Zoox, Baidu, Tesla, and other entrants. [#8-K-2026-05-07] [#10-Q-2026-05-08]
Momentum
87
Value
54
Sentiment
47
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $16.00 · Bull $20.00 · Bear $11.00Analysis 2026-05-09; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $19.16
Why
Momentum87 · Δ7d +9.8
Value54 · Δ7d +0.2
Sentiment47 · Δ7d -2.2
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.2.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • International expansion and AV initiatives add execution risk; management cited the UK expansion and future Nashville AV operations, while the 10-Q also flags competition from Waymo, Zoox, Baidu, Tesla, and other entrants. [#8-K-2026-05-07] [#10-Q-2026-05-08]
  • • Large buybacks support the stock but also consume cash that could otherwise fund acquisitions or strategic investment; the 10-Q explicitly notes the program may not create the intended long-term shareholder value. [#10-Q-2026-05-08]
  • • The bear case is that the quarter was not clean: Bloomberg and Reuters both framed Q1 as an EPS and/or ride-volume miss versus expectations, with expansion and higher-end service investments weighing on profit quality, so the market may keep discounting Lyft until growth and margin durability are proven across more than one quarter.

Catalyst clock

2026-05-31

Ride-volume/EPS miss digestion can keep near-term sentiment choppy

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
87
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+9.8
Δ21d
+49.5
Value
54
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.2
Δ21d
-0.7
Sentiment
47
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.2
Δ21d
-18.8
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 86.8 / Value 54.4 / Sentiment 46.8

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-09. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$20.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$16.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$11.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$6.41B
Beta
1.94
Shares Out
378.54M
P/E (TTM)
53.9
P/S (TTM)
1.22
P/FCF (TTM)
7.44
Rev YoY
+16.1%
EPS YoY
+36.6%
Gross Margin
+38.0%
Op Margin
-1.7%
Net Debt
-$520.88M
Current Ratio
0.59
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data