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LYB

LyondellBasell IndustriesD
NYSE / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Bull case: Durable petrochemical spread recovery, stable feedstock costs, and disciplined buybacks drive multiple expansion toward the analyst high; successful execution can lift the stock toward the bull target (57.0) within 12 months.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-30 · BMO.
What can break
Cyclical downturn in industrial demand
Momentum
78
Value
54
Sentiment
39
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $50.13 · Bull $57.00 · Bear $36.00Analysis 2026-02-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-30 · BMO
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-02-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $68.23
Why
Momentum78 · Δ7d +11.1
Value54 · Δ7d -1.0
Sentiment39 · Δ7d -3.5
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-30 · BMO.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Cyclical downturn in industrial demand
  • • Execution risk on cost and capital-allocation plans
  • • Bear case: Prolonged feedstock-price shocks or weak petrochemical demand compress margins and EBITDA; absent offsetting buybacks or material cost savings, shares could retreat toward the analyst low (36.0).

Catalyst clock

2026-10-30 · BMO

Commodity feedstock price shock / ethylene margin swing

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
78
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+11.1
Δ21d
+34.0
Value
54
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.0
Δ21d
-1.7
Sentiment
39
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.5
Δ21d
-16.8
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 77.7 / Value 53.9 / Sentiment 39.4

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-02-04. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$57.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$50.13
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$36.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$21.47B
Beta
0.70
Shares Out
323.04M
P/E (TTM)
116.3
P/S (TTM)
0.45
P/FCF (TTM)
56.44
Rev YoY
+19.8%
EPS YoY
+397.6%
Gross Margin
+13.3%
Op Margin
+7.8%
Net Debt
$11.19B
Current Ratio
1.64
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data