B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$57.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
LYB
LyondellBasell IndustriesDNYSE / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Bull case: Durable petrochemical spread recovery, stable feedstock costs, and disciplined buybacks drive multiple expansion toward the analyst high; successful execution can lift the stock toward the bull target (57.0) within 12 months.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +5.0.
What can break
Cyclical downturn in industrial demand
Momentum
63
Value
56
Sentiment
45
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $50.13 · Bull $57.00 · Bear $36.00Analysis 2026-02-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-02-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $68.67
Why
Momentum63 · Δ7d +4.7
Value56 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment45 · Δ7d +5.0
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +5.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Cyclical downturn in industrial demand
- • Execution risk on cost and capital-allocation plans
- • Bear case: Prolonged feedstock-price shocks or weak petrochemical demand compress margins and EBITDA; absent offsetting buybacks or material cost savings, shares could retreat toward the analyst low (36.0).
Catalyst clock
2026-05-05
Commodity feedstock price shock / ethylene margin swing
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
63
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.7
Δ21d
+10.4
Value
56
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+10.5
Sentiment
45
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.0
Δ21d
+3.3
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 62.8 / Value 56.0 / Sentiment 44.8
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-02-04. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$50.13
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$36.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$20.91B
Beta
0.70
Shares Out
323.04M
P/E (TTM)
116.3
P/S (TTM)
0.45
P/FCF (TTM)
56.44
Rev YoY
+19.8%
EPS YoY
+397.6%
Gross Margin
+13.3%
Op Margin
+7.8%
Net Debt
$11.19B
Current Ratio
1.64
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data