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LUNR

Intuitive MachinesA
Nasdaq / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Record backlog, substantial new awards, satellite-program diversification and reiterated 2026 guidance provide a credible path to strong growth if awarded work converts on schedule and margins improve.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.9.
What can break
Adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow remain negative despite rapid revenue growth.
Momentum
13
Value
34
Sentiment
93
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $18.00 · Bull $27.00 · Bear $10.50Analysis 2026-09-10; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $31.00
Why
Momentum13 · Δ7d -25.5
Value34 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment93 · Δ7d +4.9
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.9.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow remain negative despite rapid revenue growth.
  • • Analyst target count, estimate revisions, options data, employee sentiment and social coverage are unavailable.
  • • The Q2 revenue shortfall, negative adjusted EBITDA, negative free cash flow and mission cost adjustment show that backlog has not yet translated into consistent profitability.

Catalyst clock

2026-12-31

Backlog conversion and 2026 execution checkpoint

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
13
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-25.5
Δ21d
-6.4
Value
34
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+0.5
Sentiment
93
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.9
Δ21d
+31.8
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 12.7 / Value 34.2 / Sentiment 93.3

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-10. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$27.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-10 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$18.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-10 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$10.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-10 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$4.67B
Beta
1.37
Shares Out
160.45M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-40.0
P/S (TTM)
15.04
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-22.45
Rev YoY
+309.8%
EPS YoY
+33.2%
Gross Margin
+10.2%
Op Margin
-19.6%
Net Debt
-$213.18M
Current Ratio
1.66
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data