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LUNR

Intuitive MachinesA
Nasdaq / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
A record $1.8 billion backlog and substantial Q2 awards provide unusual revenue visibility if LUNR converts contracted work on schedule, controls lunar-program costs and reaches positive adjusted EBITDA [#SEC-8K-2026-08-13] [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-09-03].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.
What can break
Backlog conversion could slip because of contract definitization, procurement timing or program delays.
Momentum
7
Value
34
Sentiment
100
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $15.50 · Bull $23.00 · Bear $9.00Analysis 2026-09-18; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-18 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $30.45
Why
Momentum7 · Δ7d -6.3
Value34 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment100 · Δ7d 0.0
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Backlog conversion could slip because of contract definitization, procurement timing or program delays.
  • • Customer payload changes, mission failures or schedule slippage could create outsized financial and reputational effects.
  • • Backlog is not equivalent to realized revenue or cash flow.

Catalyst clock

2026-12-31

Backlog conversion through year-end 2026

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
7
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-6.3
Δ21d
-5.9
Value
34
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-0.1
Sentiment
100
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+32.8
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 7.2 / Value 34.1 / Sentiment 100.0

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-18. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$23.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$15.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$9.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$2.41B
Beta
1.37
Shares Out
173.23M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-19.1
P/S (TTM)
15.04
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-10.73
Rev YoY
+309.8%
EPS YoY
+33.2%
Gross Margin
+10.2%
Op Margin
-19.6%
Net Debt
-$213.18M
Current Ratio
1.66
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data