B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$198.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
LSTR
Landstar SystemCNasdaq / Transportation
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The post-earnings bull case is that 1Q26 showed a real profitability reset: EPS rose 36.5% year over year, variable contribution posted its first year-over-year increase since 3Q22, BCO utilization improved, and management's April update pointed to pricing materially ahead of normal seasonality. MarketBeat showed EPS and revenue both above consensus, and Benzinga reported post-print target increases from Stifel, Truist, Susquehanna, and Evercore while those firms kept Hold, Neutral, or In-Line style ratings.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.0.
What can break
Freight demand remains cyclical, and the 10-K says reduced shipment volumes tied to economic slowdowns or tariffs could materially hurt results. [#10-K-2026-02-24]
Momentum
34
Value
45
Sentiment
64
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $174.00 · Bull $198.00 · Bear $150.00Analysis 2026-04-29; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-18 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-18
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-18
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-18. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $198.47
Why
Momentum34 · Δ7d +3.1
Value45 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment64 · Δ7d +2.0
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Freight demand remains cyclical, and the 10-K says reduced shipment volumes tied to economic slowdowns or tariffs could materially hurt results. [#10-K-2026-02-24]
- • Landstar is dependent on independent commission sales agents, with two large agencies representing about 21% of 2025 revenue in aggregate; one major agent has administrative operations in Ukraine that remain exposed to geopolitical disruption. [#10-K-2026-02-24]
- • The bear case is that forward visibility is still limited despite the beat.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-06
Post-earnings reset after Q1 beat, margin recovery, and initial target raises
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
34
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+3.1
Δ21d
+4.5
Value
45
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-0.0
Sentiment
64
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.0
Δ21d
+6.0
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 33.9 / Value 45.2 / Sentiment 64.1
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-29. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$174.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$150.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$6.56B
Beta
0.85
Shares Out
33.94M
P/E (TTM)
38.5
P/S (TTM)
1.08
P/FCF (TTM)
69.69
Rev YoY
+18.2%
EPS YoY
+20.1%
Gross Margin
+13.3%
Op Margin
+3.9%
Net Debt
-$318.13M
Current Ratio
1.82
As of 2026-09-18 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data