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LNG

Cheniere EnergyB
NYSE / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The Q2 print improved forward visibility: revenue exceeded the pre-print estimate, EBITDA and distributable-cash-flow guidance were raised, production guidance was tightened, Train 6 reached substantial completion, and buybacks continued [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06] [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-07-30].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-26.
What can break
FY2026 results remain sensitive to production execution, market margins, optimization outcomes, and LNG operating conditions [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06].
Momentum
73
Value
54
Sentiment
54
Setup hits (3d)
6 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $280.00 · Bull $325.00 · Bear $220.00Analysis 2026-08-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
57 · Near miss
Next 2026-10-29 · BMO
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Earnings Setup
As of 2026-10-27 • RankAlpha AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $313.67
Why
Momentum73 · Δ7d -2.0
Value54 · Δ7d -0.6
Sentiment54 · Δ7d -4.9
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bullish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Earnings surprise screen
57Near miss2026-10-29 bmo
View setup

Cheniere’s second-quarter release raised 2026 EBITDA and distributable-cash-flow guidance, while the stock strengthened into Oct. 26 and its sector ETF was firm. However, the checked EPS revision evidence was mixed, revenue upside versus consensus was not established, and recent volume did not meet 1.5x normal; Q2 had also missed consensus EPS.

Screen as of 2026-10-27. Window 2026-10-27 to 2026-11-02.

Confirming evidence

  • • 6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-26.
  • • News driver: Asian LNG Prices Jump to Highest Since 2022 on Tanker Strikes.
  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · BMO.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • FY2026 results remain sensitive to production execution, market margins, optimization outcomes, and LNG operating conditions [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06].
  • • GAAP earnings may remain volatile because derivative valuation effects can differ from underlying cash-flow performance [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06].
  • • The negative post-print price reaction suggests expectations remain demanding.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-29 · BMO

Q2 revenue beat and raised FY2026 guidance

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
73
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
-2.0
Δ21d
+4.0
Value
54
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.6
Δ21d
-1.1
Sentiment
54
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.9
Δ21d
-20.2
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 73.2 / Value 53.9 / Sentiment 54.0

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-08. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$325.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$280.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$220.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$62.08B
Beta
0.27
Shares Out
206.53M
P/E (TTM)
11.0
P/S (TTM)
2.26
P/FCF (TTM)
24.06
Rev YoY
+25.4%
EPS YoY
+100.2%
Gross Margin
+32.0%
Op Margin
+30.2%
Net Debt
$24.86B
Current Ratio
0.87
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data