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LNC

Lincoln NationalB
NYSE / Insurance
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q2 operating performance was supported by Life Insurance and Retirement Plan Services growth, record annuity account balances, $903 million of holding-company liquidity, and capital flexibility. The reported Talcott transaction could further reduce legacy-block exposure and improve cash generation.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-12.
What can break
Group Protection margin pressure and higher disability loss ratio. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-30]
Momentum
57
Value
61
Sentiment
66
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $46.80 · Bull $52.00 · Bear $39.50Analysis 2026-08-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $48.33
Why
Momentum57 · Δ7d -26.2
Value61 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment66 · Δ7d +2.1
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bullish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-12.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Group Protection margin pressure and higher disability loss ratio. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-30]
  • • Recent Form 4 activity includes an open-market sale by an executive and other dispositions; this is a secondary signal and not evidence of operating performance. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-06-08]
  • • The earnings quality is mixed: Group Protection margin fell to 10.4% with higher disability losses, Retirement Plan Services had $2.4 billion of net outflows, and annuities continued to face variable-annuity outflows.

Catalyst clock

2026-07-30

Q2 2026 earnings and capital-flexibility update

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
57
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-26.2
Δ21d
-28.1
Value
61
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+0.0
Sentiment
66
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.1
Δ21d
-5.3
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 57.4 / Value 61.4 / Sentiment 66.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-04. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
15%
Probability
Target price
$52.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$46.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$39.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$8.55B
Beta
1.31
Shares Out
191.45M
P/E (TTM)
4.2
P/S (TTM)
0.45
P/FCF (TTM)
14.34
Rev YoY
+19.4%
EPS YoY
+76.5%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+15.3%
Net Debt
-$3.17B
Current Ratio
20.29
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data