B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$1,440.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
LLY
Eli Lilly andBNYSE / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The $85–87 billion 2026 revenue outlook and Q2 volume growth support further earnings expansion if incretin uptake and manufacturing capacity scale, while retatrutide and EloraTZP extend pipeline duration. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05]
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
4 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-24.
What can break
EloraTZP Phase 2b tolerability and discontinuations may complicate Phase 3 execution. [#PR-2026-09-30]
Momentum
90
Value
59
Sentiment
54
Setup hits (3d)
4 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $1,260.00 · Bull $1,440.00 · Bear $970.00Analysis 2026-10-11; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-29 · BMO
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-11 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $1,368.14
Why
Momentum90 · Δ7d +6.0
Value59 · Δ7d -0.2
Sentiment54 · Δ7d -0.4
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bullish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • 4 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-24.
- • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · BMO.
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.2.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • EloraTZP Phase 2b tolerability and discontinuations may complicate Phase 3 execution. [#PR-2026-09-30]
- • Lilly's 2025 filing says most products were sold to wholesalers and names McKesson, Cencora and Cardinal Health as significant U.S. distributors; customer-specific exposure and any current disruption are unknown. [#REL-cabf7e76-a390-43fd-8da6-8842bff320e0] [#REL-213e20b8-6e52-4900-8c16-31eed0422e11] [#REL-f82afacc-d048-4280-95b5-168e05ef869b] [#REL-0b353a22-b421-4ee0-9cd6-aa4dafe54cc2] 2025 10-K
- • At a premium multiple, weaker net pricing, margin dilution, safety or regulatory setbacks, or a Q3 guidance disappointment could outweigh strong unit demand.
Catalyst clock
2026-10-29 · BMO
October 29 Q3 results test incretin volume and raised guidance
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
90
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+6.0
Δ21d
+31.6
Value
59
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.2
Δ21d
-1.1
Sentiment
54
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-0.4
Δ21d
-26.3
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 89.8 / Value 58.5 / Sentiment 53.9
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-11. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$1,260.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$970.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$1.2T
Beta
0.39
Shares Out
941.36M
P/E (TTM)
50.9
P/S (TTM)
16.57
P/FCF (TTM)
800.77
Rev YoY
+47.7%
EPS YoY
+26.2%
Gross Margin
+83.4%
Op Margin
+49.7%
Net Debt
$36.6B
Current Ratio
1.35
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data