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LINC

Lincoln Educational ServicesC
Nasdaq / Consumer Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q2 revenue grew 22.4%, adjusted EBITDA grew 42.4% to $12.7 million, and management reiterated 2026 revenue guidance of $590 million–$600 million and adjusted EBITDA guidance of $76 million–$80 million. Sustained recovery in student-start conversion would strengthen the growth case.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.9.
What can break
A shortfall against reiterated 10%–14% full-year student-start growth could impair guidance credibility. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-10] Q2 earnings exhibit
Momentum
9
Value
51
Sentiment
57
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $22.00 · Bull $33.00 · Bear $15.00Analysis 2026-09-25; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-25 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $47.83
Why
Momentum9 · Δ7d +1.4
Value51 · Δ7d +0.9
Sentiment57 · Δ7d +0.9
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.9.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • A shortfall against reiterated 10%–14% full-year student-start growth could impair guidance credibility. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-10] Q2 earnings exhibit
  • • Lincoln raised capital-expenditure guidance to support campus investments, increasing execution and cash-deployment risk. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-10] Q2 earnings exhibit
  • • The enrollment-to-start gap may persist, threatening the reiterated 10%–14% full-year start-growth outlook.

Catalyst clock

2026-11-15

Student-start conversion at the next results update

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
9
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+1.4
Δ21d
+4.7
Value
51
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.9
Δ21d
+1.0
Sentiment
57
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.9
Δ21d
-7.8
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 9.3 / Value 51.3 / Sentiment 57.4

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-25. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$33.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
0%
Probability
Target price
$22.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$15.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$674.4M
Beta
0.97
Shares Out
31.72M
P/E (TTM)
54.2
P/S (TTM)
1.57
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
28.36
Rev YoY
+22.4%
EPS YoY
+24.5%
Gross Margin
+59.8%
Op Margin
+5.9%
Net Debt
$175.35M
Current Ratio
0.96
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data