B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$52.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
LGIH
LGI HomesDNasdaq / Consumer Durables & Apparel
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Third-quarter closings grew 10.4% year over year, and second-quarter margin performance prompted higher full-year margin guidance. If November results confirm pricing discipline and margin delivery, the $40.01 anchor could prove too pessimistic.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.
What can break
Analyst-target provenance and post-print revisions are unavailable.
Momentum
11
Value
53
Sentiment
41
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $38.00 · Bull $52.00 · Bear $27.00Analysis 2026-10-22; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-22 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $78.50
Why
Momentum11 · Δ7d -8.2
Value53 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment41 · Δ7d -29.1
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Analyst-target provenance and post-print revisions are unavailable.
- • Pricing incentives or financing friction could weaken gross margin despite the second-quarter guidance increase. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04]
- • Closings alone do not establish profitability.
Catalyst clock
2026-11-03
November 3 third-quarter results
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
11
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-8.2
Δ21d
-15.2
Value
53
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
+0.7
Sentiment
41
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-29.1
Δ21d
-26.5
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 10.7 / Value 53.0 / Sentiment 41.4
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-22. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$38.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
35%
Probability
Target price
$27.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$987.35M
Beta
1.89
Shares Out
23.25M
P/E (TTM)
9.4
P/S (TTM)
0.55
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
7.54
Rev YoY
+6.7%
EPS YoY
-14.5%
Gross Margin
+19.4%
Op Margin
+4.0%
Net Debt
$1.6B
Current Ratio
17.97
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data