B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$66.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-20 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
LGIH
LGI HomesCNasdaq / Consumer Durables & Apparel
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The quarter showed better-than-expected margin execution, a sharply larger backlog, and a raised gross-margin outlook, which supports a constructive re-rating if spring demand and pricing discipline hold.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +6.6.
What can break
Backlog conversion depends on construction timing, buyer financing, and incentive levels; a tougher rate backdrop could delay revenue recognition or force more discounts.
Momentum
56
Value
51
Sentiment
57
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $52.00 · Bull $66.00 · Bear $31.00Analysis 2026-05-20; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-20 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $82.50
Why
Momentum56 · Δ7d -2.1
Value51 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment57 · Δ7d +6.6
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +6.6.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Backlog conversion depends on construction timing, buyer financing, and incentive levels; a tougher rate backdrop could delay revenue recognition or force more discounts.
- • Cancellation rates stayed very high at 45.6%, and net orders fell 15.0% year over year, which signals ongoing affordability and financing pressure.
- • Revenue and net orders were still down, cancellation rates were elevated, and affordability remains pressured by mortgage rates and financing friction.
Catalyst clock
2026-06-15
Q1 margin beat and guide raise
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
56
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.1
Δ21d
-14.8
Value
51
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+11.2
Sentiment
57
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+6.6
Δ21d
+8.8
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 56.5 / Value 51.0 / Sentiment 57.3
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-20. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$52.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-20 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$31.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-20 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$1.36B
Beta
1.89
Shares Out
23.25M
P/E (TTM)
9.4
P/S (TTM)
0.55
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
10.40
Rev YoY
+6.7%
EPS YoY
-14.5%
Gross Margin
+19.4%
Op Margin
+4.0%
Net Debt
$1.6B
Current Ratio
17.97
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data