B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$14.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
LFST
Lifestance Health GroupCNasdaq / Health Care Equipment & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The August 6 8-K showed accelerating scale economics: revenue grew 26%, Center Margin grew 41%, Adjusted EBITDA grew 94%, and management raised FY 2026 guidance versus the ranges disclosed with Q1 results. Continued clinician additions, visit growth, productivity, and operating leverage could support re-rating.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-25.
What can break
High valuation leaves limited tolerance for slower clinician growth, visit volumes, revenue per visit, or margin expansion.
Momentum
79
Value
53
Sentiment
45
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $12.70 · Bull $14.50 · Bear $8.80Analysis 2026-08-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $14.40
Why
Momentum79 · Δ7d +9.4
Value53 · Δ7d -0.5
Sentiment45 · Δ7d -10.6
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-25.
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.5.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • High valuation leaves limited tolerance for slower clinician growth, visit volumes, revenue per visit, or margin expansion.
- • Net long-term debt exceeded cash at the end of Q2, constraining financial flexibility.
- • The setup remains execution-sensitive: growth depends on clinician recruitment, productivity, visit volumes, and revenue per visit.
Catalyst clock
2026-11-06
Confirmed Q2 results and raised FY 2026 outlook
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
79
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+9.4
Δ21d
-2.9
Value
53
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.5
Δ21d
-0.7
Sentiment
45
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-10.6
Δ21d
-17.4
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 78.9 / Value 53.0 / Sentiment 45.2
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$12.70
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$8.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$4.94B
Beta
1.11
Shares Out
382.15M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
517.2
P/S (TTM)
2.01
P/FCF (TTM)
22.97
Rev YoY
+26.1%
EPS YoY
-722.4%
Gross Margin
+30.1%
Op Margin
+5.1%
Net Debt
$225.88M
Current Ratio
1.38
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data