B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$92.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
LEN
LennarDNYSE / Consumer Durables & Apparel
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Deliveries remained within guidance, gross margin improved sequentially to 15.8%, incentives eased to 12%, construction cost per square foot fell 6% year over year, and cycle time reached a record 116 days. These operating gains provide leverage if mortgage rates retreat.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.3.
What can break
Higher rates, weaker consumer confidence, and affordability-driven pricing adjustments could offset the benefit from shorter cycle times and lower construction costs. [#SEC-8K-2026-09-16]
Momentum
37
Value
53
Sentiment
51
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $77.00 · Bull $92.00 · Bear $62.00Analysis 2026-09-21; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-28 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-21 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-28
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-28
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-28. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $74.71
Why
Momentum37 · Δ7d +3.4
Value53 · Δ7d -1.3
Sentiment51 · Δ7d -6.7
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.3.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Higher rates, weaker consumer confidence, and affordability-driven pricing adjustments could offset the benefit from shorter cycle times and lower construction costs. [#SEC-8K-2026-09-16]
- • Homebuilding cash was $1.2 billion and revolving-credit borrowings were $650 million after Lennar repurchased $256 million of stock and redeemed $400 million of senior notes. Liquidity remains meaningful, but capital allocation and borrowing warrant monitoring. [#SEC-8K-2026-09-16]
- • Adjusted EPS and revenue missed the consensus figures cited by Zacks, orders were below company guidance, FY2026 deliveries were reduced, and management described deteriorating affordability.
Catalyst clock
2026-09-18
Q3 miss, reduced outlook, and post-print revisions reset expectations
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
37
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.4
Δ21d
+2.3
Value
53
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.3
Δ21d
-1.0
Sentiment
51
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-6.7
Δ21d
-15.5
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 37.4 / Value 53.0 / Sentiment 51.3
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-21. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$77.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$62.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-27
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$20.09B
Beta
1.46
Shares Out
237.9M
P/E (TTM)
11.6
P/S (TTM)
0.86
P/FCF (TTM)
17.68
Rev YoY
-4.5%
EPS YoY
-31.2%
Gross Margin
+16.4%
Op Margin
+6.0%
Net Debt
$2.33B
Current Ratio
4.59
As of 2026-10-28 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data