B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$96.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
LEN
LennarBNYSE / Consumer Durables & Apparel
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Deliveries met guidance while construction costs, cycle time, inventory, liquidity, leverage, and capital returns showed operational discipline. The company’s Q3 guidance calls for approximately 16% gross margin with moderating incentives and improving cost discipline, providing a concrete upside test.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
1 setup hits (3d) with net bearish as of 2026-09-12.
What can break
Full-year 2026 delivery guidance was moderated to approximately 82,000-83,000 homes because of interest-rate and geopolitical pressure. [#IR-2026-06-11]
Momentum
40
Value
52
Sentiment
72
Setup hits (3d)
1 · Net Bearish
AI TargetsBase $86.00 · Bull $96.00 · Bear $72.00Analysis 2026-08-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
25 · Non-qualifying
Next 2026-09-16 · AMC
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Earnings Setup
As of 2026-09-13 • RankAlpha AI
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-11
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bearish
Target $83.00
Why
Momentum40 · Δ7d +9.3
Value52 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment72 · Δ7d +3.7
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bearish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Earnings surprise screen
25Non-qualifying2026-09-16 amc
Lennar’s date is confirmed by company IR, but the pre-event evidence is unfavorable: consensus EPS and revenue estimates have been revised down over recent months, the whisper is below consensus, revenue is expected to decline, and the stock is down approximately 4.85% over five sessions amid a weak homebuilder ETF tape.
Screen as of 2026-09-13. Window 2026-09-14 to 2026-09-18.
Confirming evidence
- • 1 setup hits (3d) with net bearish as of 2026-09-12.
- • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-09-16 · AMC.
- • Pre-earnings setup: 25 / non-qualifying.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Full-year 2026 delivery guidance was moderated to approximately 82,000-83,000 homes because of interest-rate and geopolitical pressure. [#IR-2026-06-11]
- • Lower orders and elevated incentives may compress gross and net margins.
- • Orders declined, incentives remained high, and earnings and margins were below the prior-year period.
Catalyst clock
2026-09-16 · AMC
Q2 FY2026 results reset near-term expectations
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
40
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+9.3
Δ21d
+16.4
Value
52
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-3.9
Sentiment
72
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.7
Δ21d
+11.4
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 39.8 / Value 52.5 / Sentiment 72.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-04. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$86.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$72.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$20.79B
Beta
1.46
Shares Out
240.9M
P/E (TTM)
11.6
P/S (TTM)
0.86
P/FCF (TTM)
17.68
Rev YoY
-4.5%
EPS YoY
-31.2%
Gross Margin
+16.4%
Op Margin
+6.0%
Net Debt
$2.33B
Current Ratio
4.59
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data