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KSPI

Kaspi.kz Joint RegSA
Nasdaq / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The print supports a constructive operating case: e-commerce remained the main growth engine, monetization improved, fintech revenue grew 23%, and management reiterated full-year guidance while proposing a higher dividend [#IR-2Q26-2026-08-10].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
9 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-24.
What can break
Analyst estimate revisions, target changes, and a reliable post-print market-reaction attribution are unavailable.
Momentum
68
Value
61
Sentiment
62
Setup hits (3d)
9 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $100.00 · Bull $125.00 · Bear $80.00Analysis 2026-08-13; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-13 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $106.73
Why
Momentum68 · Δ7d -1.9
Value61 · Δ7d +7.3
Sentiment62 · Δ7d +2.8
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bullish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • 9 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-24.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +7.3.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Analyst estimate revisions, target changes, and a reliable post-print market-reaction attribution are unavailable.
  • • Credit normalization risk is rising as cost of risk and the NPL ratio increased from prior periods.
  • • Net income was flat despite revenue growth, with higher funding costs, ongoing Hepsiburada investment, slightly higher credit costs, and weaker payments monetization limiting near-term operating leverage.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-10

2Q/H1 2026 print reiterated guidance and raised dividend proposal

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
68
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-1.9
Δ21d
-4.7
Value
61
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+7.3
Δ21d
+0.8
Sentiment
62
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+2.8
Δ21d
-7.4
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 67.6 / Value 60.7 / Sentiment 62.0

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-13. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$125.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$100.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$80.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$38.81B
Beta
0.05
Shares Out
428.65M
P/E (TTM)
7.1
P/S (TTM)
2.78
P/FCF (TTM)
39.50
Rev YoY
+24.2%
EPS YoY
+8.2%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+30.4%
Net Debt
-$241.59M
Current Ratio
1.08
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data