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KRT

Karat PackagingF
Nasdaq / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
KRT still has credible self-help: a meaningful paper bag contract is ramping, sourcing is moving away from China, and the warehouse network has expanded, which could restore margin leverage if freight and duty pressure eases [#10-K-2026-03-13].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.0.
What can break
Auditor transition from PwC to BDO adds a monitoring item even though the 8-K said there were no disagreements and previously disclosed control issues were remediated [#8-K-2026-03-17].
Momentum
98
Value
60
Sentiment
18
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $30.00 · Bull $34.00 · Bear $24.00Analysis 2026-04-15; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-15 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $41.50
Why
Momentum98 · Δ7d -0.9
Value60 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment18 · Δ7d +1.7
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Auditor transition from PwC to BDO adds a monitoring item even though the 8-K said there were no disagreements and previously disclosed control issues were remediated [#8-K-2026-03-17].
  • • Freight and duty costs remain the clearest near-term margin risk.
  • • The core concern is that 2025 revenue growth came with a 210 bp gross-margin decline, so if logistics and duty costs stay elevated or contract ramp disappoints, upside can vanish quickly despite the positive narrative [#10-K-2026-03-13].

Catalyst clock

2026-05-15

Next quarterly filing must show margin stabilization

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
98
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.9
Δ21d
-0.1
Value
60
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+13.8
Sentiment
18
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.7
Δ21d
+1.5
Why this grade

Composite grade F. Momentum 97.5 / Value 59.8 / Sentiment 17.8

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-15. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$34.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$30.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$24.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$952.74M
Beta
1.06
Shares Out
19.93M
P/E (TTM)
15.2
P/S (TTM)
1.01
P/FCF (TTM)
42.36
Rev YoY
+9.9%
EPS YoY
+169.4%
Gross Margin
+39.8%
Op Margin
+12.8%
Net Debt
$41.98M
Current Ratio
2.25
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data