B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$4.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
KPTI
Karyopharm TherapeuticsANasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The myelofibrosis program is now the principal upside driver: management plans an August sNDA, and FDA feedback supports SVR35 as a potentially usable surrogate endpoint. Continued multiple-myeloma operations and possible regulatory progress could restore optionality [#8-K-2026-07-31].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -2.2.
What can break
FDA may require additional evidence or delay acceptance of the myelofibrosis sNDA and accelerated-approval path [#8-K-2026-07-31].
Momentum
14
Value
41
Sentiment
89
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $2.00 · Bull $4.50 · Bear $0.70Analysis 2026-08-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $8.80
Why
Momentum14 · Δ7d -28.2
Value41 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment89 · Δ7d -2.2
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -2.2.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • FDA may require additional evidence or delay acceptance of the myelofibrosis sNDA and accelerated-approval path [#8-K-2026-07-31].
- • SENTRY clinical benefit depends on ongoing overall-survival follow-up and later regulatory conversion.
- • The endometrial-cancer primary-endpoint failure removes a major pipeline value driver.
Catalyst clock
2026-07-30
XPORT-EC-042 missed its primary endpoint
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
14
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-28.2
Δ21d
-50.0
Value
41
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+0.1
Sentiment
89
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.2
Δ21d
+33.6
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 13.5 / Value 41.2 / Sentiment 89.5
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-04. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$2.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
35%
Probability
Target price
$0.70
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$41.05M
Beta
0.21
Shares Out
22.68M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-0.1
P/S (TTM)
0.89
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-0.58
Rev YoY
-11.9%
EPS YoY
-46.4%
Gross Margin
+95.8%
Op Margin
-56.2%
Net Debt
$169.86M
Current Ratio
0.79
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data