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KPTI

Karyopharm TherapeuticsF
Nasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
A creditor agreement that resolves defaults, followed by FDA filing acceptance, could restore time for the myelofibrosis program. The sNDA was submitted, but neither acceptance nor approval is established [#IR-2026-08-31].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29.
What can break
A failed financing or restructuring could lead to creditor enforcement, substantial dilution, or little residual value for common equity.
Momentum
14
Value
41
Sentiment
6
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $0.25 · Bull $0.80 · Bear $0.03Analysis 2026-10-15; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-29
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-15 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $8.80
Why
Momentum14 · Δ7d -
Value41 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment6 · Δ7d -
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • A failed financing or restructuring could lead to creditor enforcement, substantial dilution, or little residual value for common equity.
  • • FDA filing acceptance, Priority Review and eventual myelofibrosis approval remain uncertain; refusal to accept the sNDA is a forbearance termination condition [#8-K-2026-09-11] [#IR-2026-08-31].
  • • The October 22 extension buys one week, not a debt cure.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-29

Forbearance now runs to October 22

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
14
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Value
41
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-0.4
Sentiment
6
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Why this grade

Composite grade F. Momentum 13.5 / Value 40.6 / Sentiment 6.5

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-15. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$0.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B
Base case
35%
Probability
Target price
$0.25
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B-
Bear case
45%
Probability
Target price
$0.03
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$10.94M
Beta
0.21
Shares Out
22.68M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-0.0
P/S (TTM)
0.89
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-0.15
Rev YoY
-11.9%
EPS YoY
-46.4%
Gross Margin
+95.8%
Op Margin
-56.2%
Net Debt
$169.86M
Current Ratio
0.79
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data