B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$6.40
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
KOPN
KopinCNasdaq / Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Primary-source flow improved after Q4: management said shutdown-driven order timing hurt Q4 2025, but product order flow had returned to anticipated levels and new European orders exceeded forecast, and April-May 2026 releases added a $15 million AI-development order, a $3.2 million FPV entry program, and a $21.5 million defense follow-on award. [#10-K-2026-04-13] [#8-K-2026-04-29]
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.1.
What can break
Analyst coverage appears thin and delayed revision data is unavailable before the May 12, 2026 earnings event, increasing volatility around new information.
Momentum
88
Value
36
Sentiment
66
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $5.20 · Bull $6.40 · Bear $3.40Analysis 2026-05-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $9.10
Why
Momentum88 · Δ7d +6.3
Value36 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment66 · Δ7d +4.1
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.1.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Analyst coverage appears thin and delayed revision data is unavailable before the May 12, 2026 earnings event, increasing volatility around new information.
- • Fabric.AI and FPV-drone opportunities are early and execution-dependent; successful demos, funding cadence, manufacturing scale-up, and commercialization still need proof. [#8-K-2026-04-29] [#PR-2026-04-22]
- • As of May 8, 2026 there is no company Q1 2026 earnings release yet, so no beat/miss, guidance revision, or post-print analyst revision signal is available; low coverage and unproven conversion from prototype/demo programs to production keep the thesis in monitoring mode rather than upgrade mode.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-12
Q1 2026 results and call set for May 12, 2026
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
88
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+6.3
Δ21d
-5.0
Value
36
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-0.5
Sentiment
66
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.1
Δ21d
+18.9
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 88.2 / Value 35.8 / Sentiment 66.4
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$5.20
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$3.40
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$988.84M
Beta
2.92
Shares Out
185.87M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
357.0
P/S (TTM)
10.29
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-52.21
Rev YoY
+50.6%
EPS YoY
-113.8%
Gross Margin
+41.9%
Op Margin
-34.6%
Net Debt
-$60.15M
Current Ratio
2.18
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data