B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$62.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
KMX
CarMaxDNYSE / Consumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The post-print bull case is that Q1 delivered a real top-line beat, wholesale strength, better CAF penetration, EPP margin per retail unit improvement, and visible SG&A leverage while the new CEO framed a credible self-help plan around pricing, conversion, transaction profitability, and cost discipline [#SEC-8K-2026-06-17]. Secondary stored coverage also reports at least eight Wall Street target increases and one upgrade after results, suggesting some analysts viewed the print as evidence of early execution progress, though the packet does not provide a full target-change table [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-06-18].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.2.
What can break
CarMax Auto Finance income fell 1.0%, and any weaker credit performance or lower loan balances could limit transaction-level profit improvement [#SEC-8K-2026-06-17].
Momentum
91
Value
54
Sentiment
46
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $54.00 · Bull $62.00 · Bear $42.00Analysis 2026-06-23; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-08 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-06-23 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-08
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-08
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-08. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $51.42
Why
Momentum91 · Δ7d +2.3
Value54 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment46 · Δ7d +1.2
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.2.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • CarMax Auto Finance income fell 1.0%, and any weaker credit performance or lower loan balances could limit transaction-level profit improvement [#SEC-8K-2026-06-17].
- • Comparable-store used unit sales still declined 0.8%, showing demand and conversion have not yet fully turned despite better total unit growth [#SEC-8K-2026-06-17].
- • The bear case is that the beat came with weaker retail unit economics: comparable-store used sales were still negative, retail gross profit per unit fell sharply year over year, CAF income slipped, and vehicle sourcing declined.
Catalyst clock
2026-09-30
Next quarter needs proof that pricing-led volume gains can hold without another retail margin giveback
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
91
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+2.3
Δ21d
+9.1
Value
54
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+2.1
Sentiment
46
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+1.2
Δ21d
-5.6
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 91.3 / Value 53.5 / Sentiment 46.1
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-06-23. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$54.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$42.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$8.31B
Beta
1.35
Shares Out
141.91M
P/E (TTM)
13.3
P/S (TTM)
0.22
P/FCF (TTM)
2.93
Rev YoY
+5.5%
EPS YoY
-5.3%
Gross Margin
+10.7%
Op Margin
+2.1%
Net Debt
$18.02B
Current Ratio
2.70
As of 2026-09-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data