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KINS

Kingstone CompaniesC
Nasdaq / Insurance
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The constructive read is that Q1 headline loss metrics were distorted by eleven winter catastrophe events, while underlying underwriting still improved and management reaffirmed 2026 growth guidance. That combination supports the idea that the earnings power shown in FY2025 may have been interrupted rather than broken [#8-K-2026-05-07] [#10-K-2026-03-16].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -2.6.
What can break
Coverage is low and post-print analyst revision evidence is limited in the packet, so forward visibility is weaker than the valuation gap alone suggests.
Momentum
75
Value
62
Sentiment
51
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $16.50 · Bull $21.50 · Bear $10.50Analysis 2026-05-16; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-18 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-16 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-18

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-18. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $24.00
Why
Momentum75 · Δ7d +1.2
Value62 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment51 · Δ7d -2.6
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -2.6.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Coverage is low and post-print analyst revision evidence is limited in the packet, so forward visibility is weaker than the valuation gap alone suggests.
  • • Q1 2026 GAAP net combined ratio rose to 112.0% because of eleven winter catastrophe events in the Northeast, underscoring that reported earnings can swing sharply even when underlying trends are improving [#8-K-2026-05-07].
  • • The cautious read is that a 112.0% Q1 GAAP net combined ratio shows how exposed the story remains to catastrophe volatility and execution risk as the company expands into new states.

Catalyst clock

2026-06-30

California market entry is the next dated execution checkpoint

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
75
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.2
Δ21d
+5.8
Value
62
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+0.0
Sentiment
51
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.6
Δ21d
+1.0
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 75.4 / Value 62.2 / Sentiment 51.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-16. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$21.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$16.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$10.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$288.08M
Beta
0.44
Shares Out
14.48M
P/E (TTM)
7.5
P/S (TTM)
1.17
P/FCF (TTM)
3.21
Rev YoY
+30.7%
EPS YoY
+34.8%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+19.8%
Net Debt
-$7.6M
Current Ratio
0.41
As of 2026-09-18 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data