B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$285.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
JNJ
Johnson JohnsonBNYSE / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The reported sales and adjusted-EPS beats, upward revision to July 29 guidance, 7.9% Innovative Medicine operational growth and new product authorizations support a recovery if MedTech improves. The deterministic prior is positive with a meaningful thesis-change score, but the post-print evidence does not justify an unqualified upgrade.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-25.
What can break
MedTech's 2.5% Q3 operational growth and reported medical-device shortfall versus expectations challenge the growth narrative. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-13] Market reaction
Momentum
72
Value
60
Sentiment
55
Setup hits (3d)
6 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $263.00 · Bull $285.00 · Bear $225.00Analysis 2026-10-16; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-16 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $283.24
Why
Momentum72 · Δ7d -17.4
Value60 · Δ7d -0.2
Sentiment55 · Δ7d -3.4
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bullish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • 6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-25.
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.2.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • MedTech's 2.5% Q3 operational growth and reported medical-device shortfall versus expectations challenge the growth narrative. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-13] Market reaction
- • STELARA biosimilar erosion, softer SIMPONI/REMICADE and other mature-product sales require sustained replacement growth. Company Q3 release
- • MedTech growth of 2.5%, STELARA's roughly 690-basis-point drag on Innovative Medicine growth, adjusted EPS down 7.5% year over year, and talc-related GAAP charges weaken the quality of the beat.
Catalyst clock
2026-10-30
Q3 beat and higher guidance confront a weak MedTech reaction
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
72
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-17.4
Δ21d
-16.1
Value
60
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.2
Δ21d
-0.9
Sentiment
55
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.4
Δ21d
-13.3
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 71.8 / Value 60.4 / Sentiment 54.6
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-16. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
1%
Probability
Target price
$263.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$225.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$635.76B
Beta
0.34
Shares Out
2.41B
P/E (TTM)
19.7
P/S (TTM)
5.34
P/FCF (TTM)
66.85
Rev YoY
+6.6%
EPS YoY
-0.9%
Gross Margin
+68.0%
Op Margin
+27.0%
Net Debt
$29.23B
Current Ratio
1.09
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data