B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$27.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
JMSB
John Marshall BancorpCNasdaq / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The earnings beat, ninth consecutive quarterly net-interest-margin expansion, loan and deposit growth, positive operating leverage, clean non-accrual profile, and dividend increase support a constructive earnings-power thesis [#SEC-8K-2026-07-22] [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-07-22].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.5.
What can break
Bank earnings remain exposed to funding costs, net-interest-margin normalization, credit losses, and asset-quality deterioration.
Momentum
68
Value
50
Sentiment
58
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $24.00 · Bull $27.00 · Bear $18.00Analysis 2026-07-27; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-28 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-27 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-28
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-28
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-28. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $27.00
Why
Momentum68 · Δ7d +0.5
Value50 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment58 · Δ7d -1.5
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.5.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Bank earnings remain exposed to funding costs, net-interest-margin normalization, credit losses, and asset-quality deterioration.
- • Future dividends remain discretionary and subject to capital, regulatory, liquidity, and operating constraints [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-07-22].
- • No forward guidance or stored earnings-call transcript is available, and no post-print analyst revision signal is confirmed.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-26
Higher quarterly dividend
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
68
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+0.5
Δ21d
-2.4
Value
50
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
+0.1
Sentiment
58
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.5
Δ21d
-7.6
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 67.6 / Value 50.0 / Sentiment 58.4
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-27. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$24.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$18.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-27
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$329.37M
Beta
0.48
Shares Out
14.11M
P/E (TTM)
14.1
P/S (TTM)
4.65
P/FCF (TTM)
13.81
Rev YoY
+9.8%
EPS YoY
+39.1%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+26.1%
Net Debt
$79.2M
Current Ratio
0.12
As of 2026-10-28 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data