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JHX

James Hardie IndustriesC
NYSE / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The positive case is that FY26 closed with EBITDA above guidance, FY27 free cash flow is guided above $500 million, and management says integration synergies are ahead of plan, which supports a steady rerating if organic volumes stabilize [#SEC-8K-2026-05-19].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-11.
What can break
Analyst revision breadth is not well populated in the packet, limiting confidence that post-earnings optimism has been broadly validated by the Street.
Momentum
84
Value
50
Sentiment
59
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $27.00 · Bull $31.00 · Bear $22.00Analysis 2026-06-29; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-06-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $33.86
Why
Momentum84 · Δ7d +4.0
Value50 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment59 · Δ7d +3.9
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-11.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.9.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Analyst revision breadth is not well populated in the packet, limiting confidence that post-earnings optimism has been broadly validated by the Street.
  • • Capital-allocation actions such as the June 2026 note redemption help the balance sheet but do not solve demand softness in core end markets [#8-K-2026-06-26].
  • • The bear case is that underlying demand is still soft: the FY26 release cited inflationary and affordability pressure on housing, and packet earnings context points to weather-disrupted fiber cement sales plus still-negative full-year organic sales, so execution may not fully offset a weak end market.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-15

FY27 outlook digestion still hinges on converting earnings strength into organic growth proof

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
84
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.0
Δ21d
-4.6
Value
50
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+1.7
Sentiment
59
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.9
Δ21d
+7.4
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 84.2 / Value 50.3 / Sentiment 58.5

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-06-29. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$31.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$27.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$22.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$17.67B
Beta
1.57
Shares Out
580.52M
P/E (TTM)
43.0
P/S (TTM)
2.93
P/FCF (TTM)
40.20
Rev YoY
+63.9%
EPS YoY
+22.9%
Gross Margin
+35.9%
Op Margin
+13.7%
Net Debt
$4.24B
Current Ratio
1.59
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data