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JEF

Jefferies Financial GroupC
NYSE / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The best bull read is that June 24 results strengthened evidence that Jefferies' core franchise is gaining share: record advisory and underwriting revenue, record equities revenue, higher book value per share, active buybacks, and management's explicit confidence in 2H26 backlog all support a constructive medium-term setup [#SEC-8K-2026-06-24].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
Asset-management and legacy investment exposures remain a source of earnings noise even as the firm winds them down, limiting how cleanly investors may capitalize core capital-markets momentum.
Momentum
28
Value
55
Sentiment
58
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $52.00 · Bull $58.00 · Bear $43.00Analysis 2026-06-29; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-06-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $65.00
Why
Momentum28 · Δ7d +5.5
Value55 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment58 · Δ7d -2.5
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -2.5.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Asset-management and legacy investment exposures remain a source of earnings noise even as the firm winds them down, limiting how cleanly investors may capitalize core capital-markets momentum.
  • • Backlog optimism for 2H26 is management commentary, not yet realized revenue; a softer sponsor-led M&A or underwriting environment would pressure near-term estimates.
  • • The bear read is that even with strong core revenue, the quarter still appears to have missed consensus on EPS and roughly matched-to-slightly missed revenue expectations in secondary coverage, while expense growth and ongoing sensitivity to legacy/asset-management volatility can still blunt operating leverage; the lack of verified post-print estimate or target revisions keeps conviction below a full bullish call.

Catalyst clock

2026-06-24

Q2 print confirmed franchise momentum but not a clean beat

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
28
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.5
Δ21d
-13.2
Value
55
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-8.8
Sentiment
58
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.5
Δ21d
-2.1
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 27.9 / Value 54.7 / Sentiment 58.0

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-06-29. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$58.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$52.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$43.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$12.58B
Beta
1.50
Shares Out
230.55M
P/E (TTM)
22.4
P/S (TTM)
1.24
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
1.70
Rev YoY
+106.8%
EPS YoY
+159.8%
Gross Margin
+91.2%
Op Margin
+39.1%
Net Debt
$20.88B
Current Ratio
1.51
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data