B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$33.30
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-09-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
IX
ORIXDNYSE / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Bull case assumes sustained higher JGB yields, continued recovery in leasing/asset-backed returns, and accretive M&A or asset sales that unlock value; under this scenario ORIX trades toward mid-30s USD on multiple expansion and stronger EPS execution.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.7.
What can break
Adverse interest-rate moves compressing investment returns
Momentum
51
Value
57
Sentiment
41
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $27.97 · Bull $33.30 · Bear $21.31Analysis 2025-09-27; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2025-09-27 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $43.78
Why
Momentum51 · Δ7d +10.2
Value57 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment41 · Δ7d +3.7
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.7.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Adverse interest-rate moves compressing investment returns
- • Currency/ADR liquidity variability
- • Bear case assumes a macro slowdown that increases impairments in leasing/aviation/shipping exposures and compresses investment returns; share price could fall into low-20s USD as earnings and ROE re-rate downward.
Catalyst clock
No dated catalyst is available.
Quarterly / fiscal results surprise
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
51
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+10.2
Δ21d
-13.6
Value
57
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
+0.1
Sentiment
41
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.7
Δ21d
+2.1
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 51.0 / Value 57.0 / Sentiment 41.5
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2025-09-27. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$27.97
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-09-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$21.31
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-09-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$41.54B
Beta
1.10
Shares Out
1.1B
P/E (TTM)
11.9
P/S (TTM)
1.77
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
5.93
Rev YoY
+6.5%
EPS YoY
+145.5%
Gross Margin
+44.1%
Op Margin
+22.0%
Net Debt
$28.76B
Current Ratio
1.12
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data