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IVR

Invesco Mortgage CapitalB
NYSE / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
At the $5.72 anchor price, shares trade about 26% below the preliminary August book value of $7.74. Stable Agency MBS spreads, carry and dividend coverage could narrow that discount.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · AMC.
What can break
August 31 book value of $7.74 was preliminary and unaudited, below June 30's $8.03. [#8-K-2026-09-15] [#SEC-8K-2026-07-30]
Momentum
14
Value
63
Sentiment
62
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $6.10 · Bull $7.20 · Bear $4.70Analysis 2026-10-07; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-29 · AMC
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-07 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $8.17
Why
Momentum14 · Δ7d -0.0
Value63 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment62 · Δ7d +3.4
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · AMC.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • August 31 book value of $7.74 was preliminary and unaudited, below June 30's $8.03. [#8-K-2026-09-15] [#SEC-8K-2026-07-30]
  • • August repurchase borrowings were $6.9 billion, with 6.8x GAAP debt-to-equity and 7.5x economic debt-to-equity; funding and spread shocks could magnify losses. [#8-K-2026-09-15]
  • • Preliminary book value declined from $8.03 at June 30 to $7.74 at August 31.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-29 · AMC

Declared September dividend payment

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
14
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-5.7
Value
63
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-9.9
Sentiment
62
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+3.4
Δ21d
-16.9
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 14.0 / Value 63.5 / Sentiment 62.5

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-07. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$7.20
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$6.10
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$4.70
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$596.33M
Beta
1.71
Shares Out
107.64M
P/E (TTM)
16.7
P/S (TTM)
2.05
P/FCF (TTM)
12.10
Rev YoY
+37.9%
EPS YoY
-183.4%
Gross Margin
+96.5%
Op Margin
+100.5%
Net Debt
$5.45B
Current Ratio
0.04
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data