B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$130.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ITRI
ItronBNasdaq / Technology Hardware & Equipment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The Q2 print showed substantial margin and cash-flow strength despite lower revenue: adjusted gross margin expanded 460 basis points, adjusted EBITDA rose 8% to $96.8 million, and full-year adjusted EPS guidance increased to $6.30-$6.50. Backlog, recurring revenue, and Outcomes growth provide support for a better earnings mix.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.8.
What can break
A June 3 open-market sale of 11,400 shares by the SVP of Networked Solutions was disclosed; this is an insider-activity signal only and not evidence about operating performance. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-06-04]
Momentum
68
Value
64
Sentiment
62
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $105.00 · Bull $130.00 · Bear $82.00Analysis 2026-07-31; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-31 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $129.60
Why
Momentum68 · Δ7d -14.3
Value64 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment62 · Δ7d +4.8
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.8.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • A June 3 open-market sale of 11,400 shares by the SVP of Networked Solutions was disclosed; this is an insider-activity signal only and not evidence about operating performance. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-06-04]
- • Full-year revenue guidance remains low-growth despite the higher EPS outlook.
- • Revenue declined 7.2% year over year, Networked Solutions revenue declined 17% because of deployment timing, GAAP diluted EPS fell 19%, and free cash flow declined 10%.
Catalyst clock
2026-07-28
Q2 earnings beat on profitability; FY EPS outlook raised
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
68
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-14.3
Δ21d
-16.7
Value
64
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-0.9
Sentiment
62
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.8
Δ21d
+1.4
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 68.3 / Value 63.7 / Sentiment 62.4
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-31. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$105.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$82.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$4.41B
Beta
1.47
Shares Out
43.79M
P/E (TTM)
17.4
P/S (TTM)
1.84
P/FCF (TTM)
12.96
Rev YoY
-7.2%
EPS YoY
-19.0%
Gross Margin
+38.8%
Op Margin
+13.9%
Net Debt
$263.38M
Current Ratio
2.75
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data